The word "foresight" comes from the English "foresight". Translated, it means "look into the future." Today, foresight is the most effective method that is used to formulate priorities in the field of economics, science, technology and society.
Based on the results obtained using such a project tool, special roadmaps are created. It is they that make it possible to solve questions of shaping the future.
Definition of a concept
Foresight is an assessment of the long-term prospects of technology, science, society and the economy, which is carried out systematically. The goal of such projects is to determine the strategic direction regarding new technologies and research, which in the future are capable of bringing the maximum possible benefits of a socio-economic nature.
Appearance story
Foresight is a methodology that is relatively new. This concept appeared about fifty years ago. The foresight method first appeared in a project being developed by the American corporation RAND. It was there that problems were solved to identify promising technologies in the military sphere.
In the fifties of the last century, the company's specialists faced the problem of the insufficiency of the traditionally used forecasting methods. In doing so, they went their own way. RAND specialists developed a delphi technique. Subsequently, many foresight studies began to be based on it.
The technique developed by the Americans was further developed in the seventies of the last century. It was then that the foresight method first arose nationwide. One of the first to be praised by the Japanese government. Not so long ago, the results of the eighth nationwide foresight were summed up in this state.
Similar studies are carried out in almost all countries within the European Union, as well as in China. More recently, Russia was included in this list.
Foresight received a new round in its development in the nineties of the last century. This was a period when the technique went beyond technology and science. They began to use foresight to evaluate promising markets. Not so long ago, the methodology was applied in forecasting social processes and in the formation of a structure that is part of national innovation systems.
Application
The foresight method is used to develop long-term strategies for the development of technology, science and economics. Moreover, its results are aimed at increasing competitiveness, as well as at the possibility of the most effective development of the economic and social sphere.
Foresight is a method in which special attention is paid to achieving consensus between the main participants in the most important strategic areas. This is done by organizing their ongoing dialogue.
However, it should be borne in mind that foresight is not a guessing of the future. The method under consideration is based on another. It proceeds from possible options for the future that may take place subject to certain conditions.
Foresight directions
The forecasting technique is used to monitor technological and global trends. It has a direct impact on the construction of all public policy. One of the foresight areas is the formation of an expert organization, the country's reference policy. Moreover, forecasting should indicate the images of progressive national development.
results
The products of foresight institutions are the so-called roadmaps. They are an official document reflecting the likely paths of development of the state in the future. Based on these maps, long-term priorities are formed in various areas of public life and politics. Such documents serve as key tools for statesmen, as they are the basis for the development of goals and development strategies of the country; when making important decisions in conflict or problem situations; to coordinate public and political activities of the state.
Methods
The most popular in recent years has received a forecasting method called delphi. It is based on the data of a survey conducted among a large number of experts (2-3 thousand), as well as the organization of feedback through the second stage of the survey.
In research, this kind of foresight method often finds application. A variation of the method, called delphi, has already found its application in Germany, Japan, the UK and some other countries. For the survey, only
highly qualified specialists are selected and expert commissions are created in certain areas. At the same time, a list of social topics, economic, scientific and technological achievements, the appearance of which is expected in the long term (up to twenty-five to thirty years), is being developed.
Experts participating in the research evaluate each topic and identify the availability of necessary resources. Potential barriers that may arise in the practical implementation of a critical area are being identified.
There is another foresight method. A type of forecasting method for the future called Critical Technologies is actively used in France, the USA, the Czech Republic and some other countries. The formation of the necessary data is based on the knowledge of highly qualified experts. They compile a list of critical technologies in the research areas. Usually no more than two hundred experts are involved in such a foresight. Moreover, the forecasting perspective does not exceed five to ten years.
Almost every foresight project is composed using the expert panel method. This method is considered basic. For its implementation, a group of experts is formed of twelve to twenty people. They are invited to certain topics and are given several months to think about possible options for the future. At the same time, the opportunity is provided to use the latest information and analytical developments and materials.
A feature of the expert panel method is that the foresight process itself is open to many people. The main advantage of the method is the interaction of representatives of various fields of activity and scientific disciplines, which in other conditions is very difficult to organize.
At the end of the seventies of the last century, Motorola developed a new forecasting method. It is called road mapping. The main area of its application is the development of long-term strategies for large companies or technology industries. The essence of this method is to plan all the main components of the business. This applies to finance and marketing, technology and derivative
infrastructures, the market and services. The main advantage of road mapping is the development of a coherent vision of the long-term development goals that the company pursues.
Method selection
Approaches that can be applied in foresight projects are constantly updated. More and more new techniques are emerging. Their choice depends on many factors. These include time and resource restrictions, access to information sources, etc. However, the key condition that guarantees the success of the project is the use of a method that would ensure the most effective work of the group of experts involved.
Conclusion
So what is foresight? This is a special technology through which long-term forecasting is made. In other words, this is a certain way to build a balanced, coordinated and responsible model of our future. Foresight of 2030, 2050, etc. is the main result of research.
The vision of the future is reflected in various documents, which are the basis for the development of long-term programs and strategies for the development of countries.