The world reserve currency, which is currently the American dollar, is designed to solve the problems of financing international trade, as well as the storage and accumulation by countries of their financial reserves. Over the past 65 years, the US dollar has done an excellent job with this function, but it seems that its time is coming to an end, and the mono-currency system will soon cease to exist, giving way to a two-currency or another world standard.
To justify this statement, we consider in detail what a reserve currency is. This is such a monetary unit, which does not have any restrictions associated with its circulation, and which is most actively used in investment and commodity-exchange operations, playing the role of a generally recognized reserve.
In order for a monetary unit of a country to obtain a reserve status, the following necessary conditions must be met:
- This country should lead in world production, export of capital and goods, storage of gold and foreign exchange reserves.
- The credit market should be sufficiently capacious and have a high level of organization
- The country should have a wide, well-developed network of credit and banking institutions both on its territory and abroad.
In addition, the reserve currency should be distinguished by convertibility, a stable stable exchange rate and a favorable legal regime for use in international transactions.
The global financial crisis has clearly demonstrated that it is difficult for the dollar to cope with the functions that the reserve currency must perform. In the United States itself, the macroeconomic situation is far from ideal, in particular, it concerns the threat of a fiscal cliff, a constantly growing public debt (according to forecasts in 2014, it will amount to $ 185,532 billion), and the tense situation in the field of employment.
All this suggests that in the near future there will come a new currency order in which the concept of "main reserve currency" disappears, and most likely it will be replaced by a basket of several reserve currencies.
In this regard, various assumptions regarding the future prospects of the Russian ruble, which may well turn into a reserve currency of a regional scale, are increasingly appearing.
In principle, this is quite real, such chances really exist. However, this requires that a full-fledged
government bond market be formed in Russia
. While it is absent, talking about any status does not make sense, since this condition is key for the ruble to become one of the reserve currencies.
The second condition is low inflation and stability. In the future, these goals can be achieved by 2014-2018. Current realities are such that Russians are reluctant to keep their savings in investment institutions or in banks. At the same time, they mainly choose the euro or the dollar for storage. It is unlikely that in the near future the situation will change dramatically.
It is imperative that the government strongly facilitate the development of exchange trading, the free conversion of the ruble and the sale of Russian bonds on international markets. The protection of property rights in Russia, the development of the stock and financial markets, corporate legislation and a stable banking system - these are what can significantly help the ruble become a new reserve currency. If the government also makes every effort to improve the investment climate, there will be a mass of investors interested in using the Russian ruble as a reserve reserve currency.