To analyze the movement of betting lines, it is necessary to monitor the odds. This concept reflects the reaction of a particular sporting event to the demand of the cappers. Experienced players can track the movement of quotes. They look for bids with the highest odds. In this article we will talk about such a game strategy as the “movement of the betting lines”, which are monitored by cappers. So let's get started.
Definition
Typically, bookmakers set the odds for a particular event based on two factors: either based on their own statistical information and analytics, or based on a ready-made line formed by an analytical agency. For these purposes, some bookmakers have their own analytical departments. There are also companies based on the line of their colleagues. And they don’t really care that this is a kind of plagiarism.
A line is a group of interconnected markets and the kefs displayed on them. For example, 1X2 is a line that has three shoulders: victory of the 1st team, draw and victory of the 2nd. Another line may consist of handicaps (F1 (-2), F1 (-1), F1 (+1), etc.) and totals (Tb (0), Tb (1) and others). There are many other types of bets.
You must understand that the change in the lines of bookmakers is associated with the interaction of several markets. For example, when updating market odds 1X2, odds by handicap and outcome will be affected. But this may not have any effect on the markets associated with corners, cards and totals (football).
Over time, the kefs put up by offices in certain markets are capable of changing. This is the movement of the betting lines. Monitoring the coefficients will certainly help to understand both the prerequisites and the consequences of this process. A professional capper needs to understand this. Otherwise, he has very few chances to draw the right conclusions about the event and increase his profitability.
When do the lines move?
Before answering this question, you need to understand what a line load is. This term refers to the total amount of cash that is put on all shoulders within the same line. Downloading one outcome of the line is a special case. For example, the total amount of bets on the victory of the 1st team in the 1X2 line. That is, when the amount of money supply for this outcome substantially prevails, they say that the line is congested.
What is bad about shoulder loading?
For the capper himself, nothing. He made a bet and is waiting for the outcome. But for the bookmaker, it’s important not the total amount of money delivered, but their even distribution on the shoulders. After all, the main earnings of the office are laid in the margin. One-time losses of players are not so important. So, when one of the shoulders is overloaded and the rest are not, for the bookmaker there is a risk of losses. If the congested market wins, the office will suffer losses on numerous payments. This is where the movement of the betting lines takes place. That is, if the victory of the 1st team in the 1X2 line is loaded, then X and 2 begin to move up. This will cause an increase in the number of bets on these markets and balance all three shoulders.
Causes of occurrence
We have already found out that a change in the lines of bookmakers is directly related to overload. The latter arises from two types of player activity: unintentional and intentional.
Unintentional Overload
Appears at the time of loading the favorite (very popular among players) market. For example, it can be one of the main outcomes of 1X2 or total goals. Most often, amateur players put on the most understandable and simple market. On the same victory of any of the teams. This makes it possible for offices to underestimate the kefs, thereby obtaining a large margin due to the non-entry of one of the favorite markets. For example, when two tennis players are playing, the coefficient on the strongest is always loaded more. And in the same football, there are also draws that allow offices to more than pay off loading rates on a favorite. Thus, when players bet too much on one shoulder, the movement of the betting lines occurs. As a result, the loaded factor decreases, and the underloaded one increases.
Intentional factors
Intentional factors include a one-time significant load of any of the shoulders of the line. Most often, this happens with contractual games. This is a very deep and complex issue that requires a separate study. But within this topic, it is worth noting that for all gaming companies such bets are suspicious and sometimes become the subject of separate proceedings. In this case, loading not only causes a jump in the movement of the betting lines, but can also cause the market to close completely. In general, any non-standard behavior of players can result in unforeseen expenses for offices that they do not want to bear.
Practical use
Let's find out how motion analysis of betting lines can help the capper. And for easier understanding, we give specific practical examples.
By choosing a bid and a specific market, we can track the dynamics of changes over the last couple of days. After that, we can conclude the advisability of the rate. For example, if over the past 48 hours the coefficient on the selected market has changed a lot, then most likely one of its shoulders has undergone loading. How this happens, we described above. If the coefficient has fallen sharply, then either a lot of bets have been made on this market, or a little, but significant in amount. In this case, the analysis must be based on the level of credibility of the game event. When it comes to some unimportant match, the nature of this load is doubtful. Collusion may occur between teams (players). If the event is significant, then such a movement of the cafe indicates the desire of the gaming company to earn or balance the gross volume of bets on the shoulders of the market.
Another example of using the analysis of the line of bookmakers is the preparation for the appearance of arbitration situations. The fast-growing coefficient on one of the shoulders in a particular gaming company with the same character on the other is a clear signal of the next appearance of the fork. If you respond in a timely manner, then this information can be converted into money.
Another area of application for the analysis of the line of bookmakers is protection from the traps of offices using artificial forks to catch professional cappers in arbitration. Although these risks are small, they are. Therefore, if in the line of any office there is an abrupt increase in the pot (at the same time, the odds for other bookmakers do not change) without any logical reasons, then it is better to refrain from making a bet.