The US dollar against the ruble in recent years is very variable: after the crisis of 2008-2009. American currency has fallen in price significantly. In 2013 and the beginning of 2014 it grew again. Market experts believe that a whole range of factors, both economic and political, influence the situation, as well as the answer to the question of whether the dollar will fall.
Oil price
According to one point of view, the dollar / ruble exchange rate in 2014 will vary greatly. A sharp increase in the US currency may be accompanied by a smooth restoration of the position of the Russian banknote. The ruble exchange rate, experts say, is largely dependent on oil prices. The higher it is, the weaker the dollar will be. If the price of oil falls, the Russian government, to compensate for the drawdown in the budget, devalues āāthe ruble in order to gain more from the export of āblack goldā.
At the same time, positive macroeconomic statistics coming from the United States, as well as the gradual exit of the EU from a long recession, indicate that oil prices will remain at a fairly high level (about $ 100 per barrel). The ruble exchange rate, thus, is supported by the stability of Western economies. In 2014, if oil prices sharply take a course on the decline, the Russian currency will subsequently become cheaper in relation to the US currency. If on the contrary, then it remains only to wait for the dollar to fall.
The ruble is not weak
There is a point of view that the Russian ruble as a whole is not at all a weak currency. According to estimates by supporters of this thesis, the national banknote of our country in real terms has strengthened over the past 10 years by 60%. If, for example, citizens all these years kept their savings in rubles, then they definitely won. At the same time, such strengthening of the Russian currency, economists believe, sooner or later will be won back by the market. Despite the large volumes of fuel export, the inflow of net money into the country (in the form of salaries, transfers) is low. The Russian economy, therefore, may experience problems from this, and the ruble, as a result, will return the dollar "debt" of past years.
But still āwoodenā
Some experts believe that the ruble is a currency with respect to which it is difficult to have confidence: it is problematic to predict how the dollar will behave, the Russian banknote will fall or rise. It is enough to recall the 90s, when the ruble could at the most inopportune moment turn into worthless āpaperā. Too many factors traditionally affect the exchange rate of the Russian currency: these are oil prices, the Central Bankās policy regarding the banking system, and the behavior of private CBs themselves.
Forecasts for 2014 do not exclude that the ruble is devaluing, largely because Russia joined the WTO, as a result of which the share of imports may grow, and domestic production may decline. There are figures: by the end of 2013, the euro reached 45 rubles, although as early as 2012 such a figure was considered impossible. Therefore, an increase in the exchange rate to 50 units of the Russian currency for a single European currency cannot be ruled out. In turn, there have been signs of stabilization in the US economy in recent years, and experts on the dollar are more optimistic.
It makes no sense to speculate
Despite the fact that market experts remain pessimistic about the ruble, no one advises investing in American currency as a form of savings. There is a version that the population is artificially frightened by custom-made articles by economists, as well as by heating a variety of rumors and gossip for the sole purpose of provoking the purchase by citizens of Russia of as much American currency as possible. The real "owners" of banknotes are not speculators, but central banks. It is they who decide when the dollar will fall and when it will grow.
There is an interesting point of view: if the Russians can somehow influence our Central Bank, which so far works, rather, observing the interests of the oligarchs, and not the people, then the ābucksā can become cheaper by 30 rubles by the end of 2014. Also, some experts emphasize - even if a sharp deterioration in the economic situation occurs, the state has at its disposal a Reserve Fund, where about 5 trillion rubles are āreservedā. This is enough to cover a very large budget deficit.
Optimistic look
According to the observation of a number of experts, in the course of foreign exchange trading in recent months, stages were observed when the Central Bank of Russia did not conduct any foreign exchange interventions at all. The course of the national banknote, thus, fell into the so-called "neutral corridor" when the Central Bank does not matter: the dollar will rise or fall. The value of the ādual-currency basketā at that moment did not exceed the critical value for the Central Bank of 41 rubles. There are fundamental and speculative factors for the further behavior of the Russian currency against the dollar and the euro.
Regarding the first, there is a significant increase in Russia's foreign trade balance. This is largely due to the improvement in the financial situation of the countries of the Eurozone, which are the main economic partners of our country. The ECB predicts that the regionās GDP may grow 1.1% by the end of 2014. As a result, there may be an increase in demand for fuel resources from Russia, as well as an increase in their price. In addition, the weakening of the ruble against the dollar and the euro, which occurred in 2014, in fact, improved the trade balance of our country due to active import substitution. So itās not a fact that Russian business is sitting and waiting for the dollar to fall.
Figures from the state
The Ministry of Economic Development of Russia predicts that the ruble (in real effective terms) in 2014 will weaken by 7.4% (while some time ago the calculation was to reduce the cost by 1.5%). This figure was voiced at the highest ministerial level. In 2015, the Russian currency will be able, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, to strengthen by 0.2%, in 2016 - by 1.1%, and a little more in 2017 - by 0.1%. The exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar in 2014, according to the agency, will average 36.3 units in average annual terms (against 33.9 in the previous calculation). In 2015, one ābucksā, as expected, will cost 38.8 Russian banknotes, in 2016 almost the same - 38.7, in 2017 also without significant changes - 38.5.
The Ministry of Economic Development also believes that the average annual price of a barrel of Urals barq oil will increase to $ 104, and in 2015-2016. will drop to 100 units of American currency. In 2017, āblack goldā, according to the departmentās forecasts, will drop in price to $ 98 per barrel. The state probably does not wonder when the dollar will fall in value.
Figures from analysts
According to current forecasts of the UBS investment bank, the Russian economy in 2014 will grow by only 1.5% (while in previous calculations the figure was 2.5%), in 2015 - by 2% (before that 2 ,8%). Due to a reassessment of the vision of the financial situation in our country, the analysts of this credit organization expect that the ādual currencyā basket mentioned above will cost 44.2 rubles by the end of 2014 (before that, the figure was 40.7 units of the Russian currency).
Regarding the relationship between the dollar and the euro, by the end of 2014, UBS analysts expect that 1 unit of the American currency will cost 1.25 European banknotes. This is approximately in line with forecasts regarding the ruble (37.6 per dollar against December 2014). In 2015, the euro in relation to the ābuckā, according to UBS, will fall in price to the level of 1.20. Bank analysts expect that the Russian Central Bank will not interfere in foreign exchange trading, but do not exclude that the monetary policy of the Central Bank will tighten. But in their forecasts there is almost no place for the theses on the development of the economy of our country when the dollar exchange rate falls.
Ukrainian factor
Russian experts do not disregard the situation in Ukraine and the behavior of the dollar against the national currency of a neighboring country - the hryvnia. The International Monetary Fund sees a reasonable exchange rate in the form of 10.5-11 units of this banknote. There is also a pessimistic scenario in which the dollar can go up in price up to 12-13 hryvnias. Among the reasons are the increase in gas prices for Ukraine, the deterioration of the trade partnership with Russia, which could provoke a deficit in the country's balance of payments and lead to the devaluation of the hryvnia. The policy factor of the IMF itself is important.
If the fund gives Ukraine a loan, then the national currency of the country against the dollar may strengthen. The tranche from the IMF is able to become a positive signal for investors from abroad and entrepreneurs. One of the other positive indicators is the attitude of the leaders of Russia and the USA to help resolve the situation in the country through diplomatic means. But the political game is too complicated a process to know for sure whether the dollar will fall in Ukraine.
Cautious Predictions
Experts note that it is not difficult to understand how the dollar will behave based on ātomorrow's exchange rateā due to the fact that the Central Bank of Russia publishes the exchange rate for the current day as official for tomorrow. It is much more difficult to make long-term forecasts and it is impossible to say for sure when the dollar or euro will fall. The exchange rate of the American currency against the Russian one very much depends on two groups of factors. Firstly, it is the power of the ruble as such. It depends on the situation inside the Russian economy and political processes. Secondly, the dollar exchange rate against other world currencies (first of all, the euro), which is not easy to predict. Therefore, analysts do not advise market players to trust too much long-term forecasts about the behavior of the American banknote.