Among the priority tasks of the state, protection of the population from emergencies is of particular importance. Disasters pose a great danger, because they often arise suddenly and cause significant damage to property, communications, take lives, destroy houses. People working at technogenic facilities are under constant threat.
To prevent natural disasters, to eliminate the consequences that they entail, deep knowledge of their nature, causes, mechanism, nature of manifestation is necessary. Constant monitoring of the situation, accurate timely forecast are the most important conditions for protecting the population from emergencies. It is one of the key elements of the risk management process.
Emergency Monitoring and Forecasting System
It is intended for the observation, control and prediction of dangerous phenomena and processes occurring in nature, the technological field, the dynamics of their development. Accident forecast allows you to determine the extent of disasters, prevent their occurrence and organize effective measures to prevent them.
System members
Monitoring is carried out by many institutions and organizations. Forecasting and preventing emergencies of a hydrometeorological nature, for example, are carried out by Roshydromet units. This service, among other things, monitors the state of the atmosphere, soil and water.
Several departments are engaged in seismic observations, earthquake prediction. Among them, the Ministry of Emergencies of the Russian Federation , Gosstroy, the Ministry of Defense, the Russian Academy of Sciences, etc.
A special role in forecasting belongs to the Ministry of Natural Resources. This department coordinates the work of the Federal Service for Ecological, Technological and Nuclear Supervision , the activities of other structures that monitor the state of nature. The Ministry and its units organize and monitor:
- Sources of anthropogenic impact on the environment.
- Plant and animal life.
- The aquatic environment in places of discharge of drains and water intake.
- Hazardous geological phenomena.
In Russia, socio-hygienic monitoring and forecasting of emergency situations in the healthcare sector are also underway. The Ministry of Health and Social Development is engaged in this activity.
The state of technogenic facilities is monitored by supervisory agencies: Gosatomnadzor and Gosgortekhnadzor of Russia , as well as units that are part of the federal executive branch. Supervisory bodies are also formed at the regional level. At enterprises, monitoring and forecasting of emergency situations is carried out by industrial safety departments.
Implementation Features
The quality of monitoring and forecasting emergencies determines the effectiveness of reducing the risks of disasters and their scale. The special significance of this direction in the field of ensuring the protection of the population and the territory of the country was reflected in Presidential Decree No. 86-RP of 2000.
This act stated the need for monitoring and forecasting emergencies , and determined the procedure for creating an effective control system. After carrying out the corresponding work, it became a functional information and analytical link of the RSES.
The structure of the system was formed on the basis of the principles of organization of departments and ministries included in the RSES.
Management levels
Methodological guidance, coordination of the system at the federal level is carried out by the All-Russian Center for Forecasting and Monitoring under the Ministry of Emergencies of the Russian Federation . In federal districts, constituent entities of the Russian Federation, work is carried out by regional and territorial units of monitoring, forecasting, and laboratory control.
The system as a whole includes many interdepartmental, territorial, departmental subsystems. They primarily include:
- All-Russian Monitoring Center.
- Regional units that are part of the civil defense and emergency management bodies.
- Laboratory control network.
- Environmental Observation System.
- Special institutions and centers subordinate to the executive structures of regional and municipal bodies.
The interaction of the structural elements of the system is carried out on the basis of special regulatory documents.
Subject Tasks
Emergency monitoring and forecasting centers in regions and municipalities carry out:
- Collection and study of information about possible and potential sources of danger, the reasons for their occurrence, the transfer of this information to the competent state authorities.
- Prediction of the occurrence and extent of emergencies.
- Organizational and methodological guidance, control, coordination of the activities of the territorial and regional levels of the system.
- Organization and conduct of control analyzes of the microbiological and chemical-radiological state of nature objects, feed, food raw materials, food, water, which are potential sources of danger of emergencies.
- Creation and development of emergency information base, geoinformation system.
- Organization of information exchange between territorial centers.
Technical support
Its basis is aerospace and ground facilities of ministries and departments, territorial divisions of state authorities, enterprises and organizations in accordance with the areas of responsibility.
The key link in technical support is the ground-based facilities of the laboratory control and monitoring system of civil defense institutions subordinate to the Ministry of Health, Roshydromet, the Ministry of Agriculture, and the Federal Service for Ecological, Nuclear, and Technological Supervision .
Space and aviation monitoring is used to identify and clarify situations associated with fires, floods, and other large-scale natural phenomena with insignificant dynamics. Aviation equipment, in addition, is designed to obtain information about the radiation background, the situation at the destruction sites, the condition of the main pipeline systems, etc. They have wider capabilities in comparison with space vehicles in the composition of monitoring objects and in efficiency.
Features of the system
The general operating procedure is defined in the Regulation approved by Order of the Ministry of Emergencies No. 483 of 2001. Individual links and elements of the system operate in accordance with the regulations adopted by the relevant departments and ministries, territorial and regional divisions of the Civil Defense and Emergencies Directorate.
The operating mode of the system is determined depending on the situation, the scale of the situation that has arisen or forecasted:
- Everyday activities.
- High availability.
- Emergency.
System tasks
Forecasting and monitoring are aimed at a fairly wide range of objects. Their composition depends on management tasks and goals.
The most relevant areas include forecasting:
- The probability of occurrence of sources of danger (industrial accidents, natural, environmental disasters, epizootics, epidemics, etc.) and the extent of emergencies, the size of the affected areas.
- Possible long-term consequences in emergency situations of a certain scale, types, time intervals, their aggregates.
- The needs of funds and forces for emergency response.
In solving these problems, appropriate methods are used. The results of forecasting and monitoring are used as the basis for the development of long-, medium- and short-term plans, targeted programs, decision-making aimed at preventing and eliminating emergencies.
Risk analysis
Recently, planning methods based on emergency risk analysis have been actively used. Its main tasks are:
- Detection and identification of potential sources of natural disasters in a particular area.
- Estimation of frequency / probability of emergencies.
- Prediction of the effects of hazardous factors on the population.
Research sources
It is carried out at the initial stage of risk analysis. The sources of emergencies are studied, as a result of which:
- The normal vital activity of people in the respective territories is substantially disrupted.
- Likely casualties among the population or damage to the health of a significant number of people.
- Substantial material losses are possible.
- Damage to nature is likely.
When sources of danger are discovered, special attention is paid to objects classified as potentially hazardous. The analysis assesses their technical condition, the probability and extent of the threat to citizens living near them. Objects located in the zone of probable adverse and dangerous natural processes and phenomena are also analyzed.
The second stage of the study
In the course of it, the probability of accidents, natural disasters, industrial and natural disasters is estimated. The size of the possible damage from them is analyzed. All these indicators, in fact, characterize the risk level of the corresponding dangerous situations.
Responsible Entities
Assessment of the likelihood of accidents and accidents at facilities operating in economic sectors, and their consequences, is carried out by managers and competent specialists of such facilities.
The forecast of emergencies risks caused by accidents, industrial, natural disasters, natural disasters, possible in the territories of subjects, municipalities, is carried out by the relevant territorial centers.
The assessment of the likelihood of an emergency in the country is carried out by the Ministry of Emergencies in close cooperation with other competent executive authorities.
Emergency classes
Emergency - the situation on the territory resulting from a dangerous event, natural / technological disaster, natural disaster that caused or can cause damage to health or death of people, damage to the environment, significant material losses, disruptions in the normal functioning of the population.
Classification of emergencies is carried out for various reasons. Depending on the scale, there are emergencies of a local, municipal, inter-municipal, regional, inter-regional and federal nature.
Local situations and violations of the living conditions of the population, which do not go beyond the boundaries of the object, are called local . The number of people injured or killed in such cases does not exceed 10 people, and the amount of damage to nature and property is not more than 100 thousand rubles.
Municipal emergency situations are situations in which the affected area does not extend beyond the boundaries of one settlement or intracity territory (in cities of federal significance). The number of victims in such cases does not exceed 50 people, and the amount of damage is not more than 5 million rubles.
Inter-municipal emergencies are situations in which the affected area covers 2 or more settlements, inter-settlement territory or intracity territory. The number of victims in this case is more than 50 people, and the damage is no more than 5 million rubles.
Regional emergencies are situations where the affected area is within the boundaries of one subject of the Russian Federation. The number of victims in this case is more than 50 people, and the amount of damage does not exceed 500 million rubles.
Federal situations are those situations in which there are more than 500 people dead or injured or the amount of damage is more than 500 million rubles.
Nature of emergencies
Depending on this symptom, emergency situations are distinguished:
- Technogenic. The occurrence of such situations is associated with technical objects. Man-made emergencies include fires, explosions, releases of radioactive substances, accidents at chemical plants, collapse of structures, transport accidents, etc.
- Natural. These include earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, storms, tornadoes, tsunamis, forest fires, mudflows, etc.
- Ecological. They are abnormal changes in the natural environment. This may be the destruction of the ozone layer, pollution of the biosphere, acid rain, etc.
- Biological. These include epizootics, epidemics, etc.
- Social. Such emergencies arise in society. Among them: ethnic conflicts, terrorist attacks, wars, violence, genocide, etc.
- Anthropogenic. Such emergencies arise due to erroneous human actions.
Reason for occurrence
On this basis, emergencies are divided into intentional and random. The first are, for example, terrorist attacks, extremist and other deliberate acts.
In most cases, emergencies are random. However, this does not mean that their occurrence is not subject to patterns.
The causes of emergencies can be divided into:
- Internal The occurrence of these reasons is caused by the complexity of technology, insufficient qualifications of workers, design flaws, moral, physical deterioration of equipment, insufficient technological and labor discipline.
- External These include terrorism, the sudden cessation of the supply of technological products, energy, natural disasters, etc.
Developmental stages
A study of the causes and development process of emergencies of a different nature indicates a common feature of all situations - their staged nature. There are 5 stages:
- Accumulation of negative effects contributing to the accident.
- The development of disaster.
- Extreme stage. During it, the main share of energy is released.
- Stage attenuation.
- Stage of liquidation.
Emergencies are caused by the so-called residual risk. According to his concept, it is impossible to ensure absolute security. Accordingly, such a degree is accepted that society accepts in a specific time period.
For emergencies necessary:
- Source of risk. This can be high pressure, poisonous, explosive, radioactive substances, etc.
- The action of the risk factor. It is, for example, an explosion, ignition, gas emission, etc.
- Finding people, farmland, animals, property in the outbreak.
Conclusion
Emergencies negatively affect the development of the economy and the state as a whole. When they occur, resources are redirected to eliminate the consequences.
Depending on the scale of the emergency, existing programs of socio-economic development may be interrupted, since the funds are used to restore the normal living conditions of the population in the affected area. In the region in which the emergency occurred, unemployment may begin, a decline in production is likely. That is why timely and high-quality monitoring and forecasting can prevent the consequences, save human lives and reduce financial losses.