Let's start with the story. During the Second World War, the Allied countries formed a system called the Bretton Woods. Its essence was as follows: the dollar should become a world currency and be provided with gold. This system was unbreakable until the early nineties, until it became dependent on the balance of supply and demand. Since that time, the dollar has been growing. Moreover, it is growing relentlessly, continuing to remain the main reserve currency of most banks in the world, including in the Russian Federation.
Why is the dollar growing? Reduction (and sometimes liquidation) of the assets of some countries (including BRIC) lead to the sale of currencies for dollars. This automatically increases the demand for the dollar. Another incentive is the sale by the US Treasury of its own bonds. The American economy continues to be the largest in the world, being the benchmark for the rest.
American society is perhaps the most entrepreneurial. It is this feature that allows you to get out of crises as quickly as possible. And it is precisely this quality that continues to instill confidence in investors in the strength of the American currency, which is why the dollar is growing. Naturally, being afloat in any situation, the country's economy attracts the eyes of the strongest investors on a global scale. And it is this fact that allows us to talk about stability under any conditions.
Move on. The law of conformity of the quantity of goods and the amount of money for which these goods can be purchased has slightly changed. Now he is starting from the established exchange rate. Well, as you know, the exchange determines the rate.
It seems that the US did not get around the crisis. Bankruptcy, unemployment, and budget deficits were also noted here. But it was precisely at the peak of the crisis that the dollar became especially sought after. Paradox? Not at all. Having understood the reasons for the appreciation, we will answer the main question about why the dollar is growing.
If, under the same conditions, the US economy continued to grow, then the dollar would become simply sky-high. But other factors play the role of a counterweight: oil prices are falling, the economy is declining in all other countries.
But the price of the currency continues to rise. Why? Investors who have lost interest in falling oil prices switched to dollars. The dollar, being a product recognized by the whole world, has become more attractive precisely because of its cheapness in this period. The question is, why is the dollar growing, not the euro? It's simple: the euro is a fairly young currency, but the dollar has a trump card - centuries of trust and recognition, so even with a fall, it will remain the strongest in the world. In addition, a huge list of external debts will not allow the US to go bankrupt. All together explains the change in the appetite of investors and, accordingly, the increase in the price of the currency.
This process can be considered on the example of the dollar-ruble. Over the past 2012, with the strange non-resistance of the Central Bank, the ruble fell by about 18%, continuing to fall further. Why is the dollar growing, the ruble falling and will there ever be a halt to this process at all? Why is the Central Bank indifferent to the fall of the national currency - the ruble?
Numerous economic experts point to the European debt crisis and declining oil demand. But this is only a tiny fraction of the truth. The basis of the Russian economy is export. The sustainability of this sector should, in theory, be task No. 1. But everything that happens to exporters is only at hand, all the more so since a significant part of the export proceeds already received is located abroad. And this fact allows you to create a pillow of financial security for an additional 18-20% (or even more).
At the same time, financial speculators who are carried away by such easy money on the game of interest rates are punished. The “flight of capital,” so heatedly debated, is actually the attraction of dollar loans from abroad. And although in part they are pseudo-loans of their own offshore companies, they are massively extinguished. Under pressure from loans, the state had to keep the same volumes of state reserves abroad to exclude uncontrolled attacks on the ruble. The liquidation of a private foreign currency loan partially unties its hands, removing the need for its own investments in the West, thereby removing its own state funds from a possible blow. And this is a double benefit: more rubles are calculated per dollar in the Central Bank, and state reserves can no longer be associated with a possible collapse of the financial system of the West. Therefore, the Central Bank is so phlegmatic about gambling buying up dollars, freeing itself from "foreign colored papers." However, from 30.76 the ruble’s exchange rate may well “jump” to 40 per dollar, delighting risk lovers.
Now back to the global scale. What draws attention to yourself in the first place? Full coordination of the movement of all markets. With the growth of the dollar, the euro falls, bonds, oil, gold. And the reason is on the surface: the USA ran out of money. Of course, they can be printed, but the situation for the United States will not change for the better: refinancing requires injections from abroad, only in this way can one external debt be replaced with another. The US Federal Reserve System should work clearly here - US banks - European banks - US budget. There was no free money from European banks, and the European Central Bank, which is able to balance the issue, for some reason hesitates with the commissioning of its machine. The United States is left to leverage, trying to prevent an uncontrolled collapse of the dollar, sucking liquidity from all markets and countries. And this is another answer to the question of why the dollar is growing.
It is possible that when the ECB printing press starts up, the situation will stabilize. Will wait...