The organization of the main production at an enterprise in the construction industry largely depends on the quality of forecasting its investment activity. A number of factors and the lack of stability of the conditions that shaped the dynamics of its components complicate the process of establishing an adequate mathematical function that describes the development trend of investment activity indicators of an enterprise in the construction industry.
Organization of production at the enterprises of the industry on the basis of medium and long-term forecasting of indicators of investment activity of enterprises seems possible on the basis of the methods of Kholyp-Winters and Brown.
The organization of the main production and forecasting of the critical level of investment activity of the enterprise reveal the functional dependence of the market value of a business entity
from the level of its investment activity. The presence of this dependence indicates that the most significant factor determining the growth or decrease in the value of the enterprise is the increase or decrease in the activity of its investment activity, and, accordingly, such an indicator as the organization of production at the enterprises of the industry. In turn, a decrease in the value of an enterprise implies a loss of competitive advantage in the market, a decrease in the efficiency of its activity and its reduction, i.e. achievement by the enterprise of a financial and crisis state, and in some cases, loss of expediency of conducting industrial and economic activities. Here, the organization of production at industry enterprises assumes the special importance of forecasting, which allows one to predict quantitative changes in investment activity indicators - the activity index - and its structural indicators and makes it possible in the planning process of promising activities to determine measures to avoid or prevent undesirable dynamics of investment activity of the business entity, and together with topics and changes in its market value.
A necessary stage in predicting investment activity is the determination of a critical level (threshold value) of its investment activity (structural indicators), upon reaching which qualitative changes in the market value of a business entity are observed that occur when the enterprise as a system moves to a different development path. Such a transition is accompanied by violations in the system or its destruction, i.e. loss of stability. The instability of dynamical systems is the subject of catastrophe theory.
In view of the direct dependence of the investment activity of the enterprise on the value of its assets that we have identified, the issue of managing investment activity in order to increase it becomes relevant.
A correlation and regression analysis showed that the index of investment activity, which is the most important characteristic of the investment activity of an enterprise, is most closely related to the qualitative parameters of investment activity, such as investment management, staff quality, the level of creativity of investment projects and technologies for their implementation. In addition, the organization of production at the enterprises of the industry in such conditions increases the value of the forecast quality, through which it is possible to carry out effective management not only at the level of current technological development, but also at the level of strategic planning, bearing in mind the possibility of entering foreign construction services markets .