After 18 years of negotiations, Russia has reached a consensus with the West on the issue of WTO membership and the end of the transition period. It is now difficult to imagine the conditions that were put forward before our country in the 90s, since the structure of the Russian economy with its foreign trade product mix was significantly different from the modern one.
The pros and cons of Russia's accession to the WTO are widely covered by the media. Of course, our compatriots are already tired of the country's role as a raw materials appendage. Now the priorities that are chosen by ordinary citizens have slightly changed. The social image of any successful country in the eyes of an ordinary Russian is a happy owner of a house and a car (at least one), a family man. In the industrial period, an example of success was an upscale locksmith, first-rate student.
Russian successes in recent decades are in full view. Firstly, it is a world leader in oil production, a leader in natural gas reserves. Secondly, due to the excessive reserves of hydrocarbons and metals, Russia is not in last place in the western community. However, the West still doubts that we will be able to reach heights in aircraft manufacturing and electronics, medicine and nanotechnology. That is why the advantages of Russia's entry into the WTO are significantly felt when purchasing raw materials from a partner, and if necessary, it will be possible to resolve trade disputes in international arbitration or other special bodies.
The country's development potential, of course, is somewhat reduced due to mutual barriers in the form of duties and quotas. However, in any case, these artificial reefs are temporary phenomena that are overcome by true competition.
Scientists are worried about a different order of issues affecting Russia's WTO accession - the pros and cons regarding attracting foreign direct investment to the domestic market to meet domestic demand. The main thing is that preference is not given to imports from the Eurozone and China. With a successful macroeconomic policy , Russia may have advantages associated with the opening of additional production by Western corporations. And this is the employment of citizens. At the same time, it is necessary to remember the control of the technologies used in these industries so that no significant damage to the environment is caused.
So, the pros and cons of Russia's entry into the WTO should be considered from the perspective of the development of events in such time horizons:
- long-term effect;
- medium-term effect;
- short-term effect.
The most positive effect will be for metallurgical and oil and gas companies. One must not forget about the law of supply and demand. So, with the removal of some restrictions, prices in the world market will also decline. Therefore, to obtain clear benefits, exporters will have to extract even more raw materials in physical quantities.
In the short term, Russia can have terrible consequences in the form of unemployment, the decline of industries such as automobile, aviation, food, electronics and agriculture.
The pros and cons of Russia's entry into the WTO today are widely reflected in the media by journalists. So, among the positive aspects the analysts of GLOBEXBANK named the following:
- a reduction in duties, which will lead to both the cheapening of imported goods and an increase in Russian exports;
- lower prices for domestic goods due to the expansion of the scope of activities of foreign companies;
- predictability and the achievement of some stability in Russian foreign economic activity.
According to some researchers, the pros and cons of Russia's accession to the WTO will have some stimulating effect on the domestic economy. Thanks to a macroeconomic policy in this direction, an annual increase in foreign trade turnover of up to 10% is achieved.