For more than a century, the thought of the future of Europe has not left the attention of philosophers, historians, politicians, and simply thinking people. Russia's internal orientation to the West adds to this reflection an element of involvement in the problem, because it is European culture and values that have long remained the standard for the Russian idea. The future of the history of Europe, as well as of the whole world, today is becoming a discussion field that touches an increasing number of cultures and political positions.
Philosophical and historical approach
Two classic philosophical and historical works - N.Ya. Danilevsky "Russia and Europe" and O. Spengler's "Sunset of Europe" for the first time analyzed the ways of the European world. Having determined the cyclical nature of the development of culture, both researchers single out the European type as one of the leading ones on the world stage of the 19th century.
O. Spengler defines European culture as having gone through an almost complete cycle of its existence. Political and economic issues are not leading in the concept of a philosopher. He presents culture as a living soul, which in the European type was already lost by the end of the 19th century. It should be replaced by another type of culture, Spengler defines it as Russian-Siberian.
Danilevsky, citing other reasons for typologizing culture, also holds the opinion of the slow decay of the European world, the development of a new, Russian, cultural-historical type.
Demography and the future
Pessimistic forecasts about the future of Europe are being put forward by an increasing number of analysts today. Gunnar Heinzen became one of them. His work “Sons and World Domination” is based on demographic data examined in historical and modern contexts. Heinsen shows that historical upheavals occur in areas where young people make up a large proportion of the population (about 30% and above).
Today, such a rapid population growth is observed in the Arab-Muslim world, and in Europe it is extremely insignificant. The situation is aggravated by the lingering desire of Europeans to create families, same-sex marriages, the general decline in family values.
The author writes about the fatal mistake of Europe, which in 2015 made it possible for refugees to move to European countries. Migrants and their descendants will eventually make up the main population of Europe (according to the Gallup Institute - 950 million people in 2052), which means they will bring their religion and traditions.
National identity
The influx of migrants from the countries of the Middle East, among which large families are large, is not just a quantitative increase in the population. This is the appearance of a fundamentally different worldview, which in some cases runs counter to European culture. The reasons for this worldview:
- Islam - the religion of most immigrants from the Middle East, plays a leading role, providing an expansive effect. Religious views of Islam, its tendency to master large new territories in connection with a sharp increase in the Muslim population is a reality that Western culture is not ready for in most cases. The alternative future of Europe in this aspect is thought of as Muslim.
- Following the views of traditional culture. European culture today is recognized as innovative, where the roles of technology, political mechanisms and the economy are dominant. However, immigrants from the Middle East adhere to the norms of traditional societies, where the place of religious, ethical, gender roles have remained unchanged for centuries. Thanks to a persistent orientation to its own traditions, such a society is more stable and can “drown out” innovative processes. In other words, Europe is only a profitable economic and territorial base for Muslim culture.
- Intellectual level. The vast majority of migrants who came from the Middle East have a low level of education, which also affects the nature of their life in Europe. Tolerance brought up in Europeans is completely alien to visitors. European values and ethical standards seem to them insignificant and meaningless. They are supplanted - at first implicitly, but in the future - more aggressively.
These, as well as other factors are the reason for the leveling of European identity - new generations of Europeans will be a minority in their historical lands.
Relations with Russia
An important point in predicting which Europe will be present on the world stage in the future is its interaction with Russia. If Russian identity from within Russia is perceived close to European, then from outside it is often recognized as an independent culture or an Eastern totalitarian state. The future of Europe in most works is described in complete isolation from Russia - both economically, politically and culturally. The slow death of Europe does not mean similar processes in Russia.
The political future of Europe in some works is considered in the context of Russian-European interaction. Common Christian roots, natural and human resources provide the basis for this cooperation.
Russia needs Europe as a source of technology and sales opportunities for raw materials. Europe sees Russia as a reliable supplier of energy resources.
The tandem of two economies and, in general, cultural and historical paths, should lead to the creation of a new cultural and historical type. This opinion is perhaps one of the most optimistic.
Esoteric versions
I recall the predictors and prophecies that describe the future of Europe. Vanga and Nostradamus predict climate change, civil and religious wars, diseases that will sweep Europe and change its life. Edgar Cayce - a psychic - writes about natural disasters, great seismic activity in Western Europe, which will lead to significant changes in the way of life of Europeans, and make technology and religion look differently.
By correlating predictions and historical facts, analysts point to some similarity and justification for what has been said. Esoteric versions also confirm the profound transformations that Europeans expect in the future.
To summarize ...
In recent years, the European world has changed significantly, influenced the fate of many peoples. The migration of the indigenous population has increased - the Dutch, Germans, French are increasingly leaving for the USA, New Zealand, Australia, giving way to immigrants from the Middle East. A cozy and safe Europe is no longer recognized as such, a premonition of terrorist attacks and other disasters causes a feeling of insecurity and insecurity. Most researchers agree - Europe is in a transitional state. What will be its outcome, largely depends on political, economic, cultural, demographic reasons.
Regardless of forecasts and points of view, the historical development and future of other cultures and peoples will depend on the future of Europe, because for many centuries it has been decisive in the world cultural space.