Social forecasting is one of the methodologically most complex forms of studying the prospects of processes and phenomena. In the natural sciences, forecasting is used to prepare for the consequences of a phenomenon. For example, the identification of a high probability of an earthquake or volcanic eruption is followed by informing and evacuating people outside the territory. The subject area of social forecasting is social processes, the outcome of which can be influenced, therefore the value of this type of research of prospects is not only in preparing for future circumstances, but also in the ability to model them.
In practice, the following methods of social forecasting are used:
Expert Assessment Method
This method consists in collecting and researching the opinions of experts on the prospects of the studied social phenomenon. The effectiveness of this path is determined by the competence of experts, the correctness of the questions posed to them and the quality of processing of the answers received.
The Delphic oracle method - a type of expert assessment method - is distinguished by a complex scheme of questioning of experts: to exclude the influence of the group on the opinion of each specialist, the names of other qualified respondents are not disclosed to experts, each independently answers questions. Next, an analysis of the responses and determination of the dominant position. After that, respondents receive the same survey, the arguments of specialists whose opinions are very different from the majority, and the opportunity to change their position. The procedure is repeated until consensus is reached.
The main advantage of the method is the exclusion of group influence on an individual opinion, since it cannot be realized until a consensus has been reached.
This method can be compared with the last election of the Pope. The decision was made by anonymous voting from the third time. Obviously, during the election, not one of the candidates managed to commit a “good deed” that could change the opinion of voters. According to custom, the procedure cannot be completed until one of the candidates receives 77 votes. It is logical to assume that long-term social forecasting by the Delphic method is similar to the definition of “hospital average temperature”.
Social modeling. Highlights
Social forecasting can be done through mathematical modeling. This method allows you to consider many options for the development of events in their correlation with various factors. As with
the Delphi method, there are some difficulties with long-term forecasting. But the advantage of this method is that the expert makes a conclusion, guided not only by his judgments, but also by the results of "machine" data processing - a variety of options for the future object under investigation.
Extrapolation method
The advantage is the identification of the patterns of the phenomenon under study based on an analysis of its history and the consideration of these data in the forecasting process. Social forecasting through extrapolation is the use of complex formulas that allow you to achieve valuable results that do not guarantee, however, one hundred percent reliability.
Social forecasting is an effective tool for managing social processes in the hands of those who have the ability to influence them.