Estonia has been in a state of depopulation for a quarter of a century. Some demographers predict the absolute extinction of the country in a hundred years: each generation of Estonians is smaller in number compared to the previous one, and this will continue. This pessimistic scenario is not able to brighten up the demographic statistics of this year. Positive dynamics, but at the expense of migrants. Although the authorities assure the European Union of their hospitality, Estonian society wants to grow at the expense of indigenous citizens and is not particularly happy about the influx of foreigners. Estonians are well understood by neighbors - Latvians and Lithuanians, whose numbers are also declining.
Baltic demographic crisis
The population of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia began to decline with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The last twenty-five years of being in the single space of the European Union have not contributed to the growth in the number of citizens.
Since 1991, the population of Estonia has decreased by fifteen percent, Latvia - by twenty-six percent, Lithuania - by twenty-three percent:
- Estonia, 1991 - 1,561 million people / 2016 - 1,316 million people;
- Latvia, 1991 - 2 658 million people / 2016 - 1 900 million people;
- Lithuania, 1991 - 3 700 million people / 2016 - 2 800 million people.
To understand how the demographic minus appears, two indicators must be taken into account: what is the natural profit or loss of population, i.e. the ratio of births and deaths, as well as the level of migration.
These indicators for Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have been negative for many years. More dies than they are born, and the number of those who leave is much more who enter the country.
Natural decline and migration in the Baltic countries
Over a quarter of a century, demographers provide statistics reflecting population decline for natural reasons and as a result of leaving the Baltic countries. The population of Estonia has declined due to natural causes by ninety thousand, due to migration - by one hundred and fifteen thousand people. The population of Latvia decreased by almost seven hundred thousand people, more than half of the citizens emigrated. Lithuania lost a hundred and eighty-three thousand people in a quarter of a century due to natural causes; the result of migration was a loss of six hundred and seventy thousand.
Reasons for the decrease in the population of Estonia
In Estonia, the reasons for depopulation tend to be seen not in the economic and political aspect, but in the historical one. Seriously, fertility fell on the eve of the twentieth century, and later it was not possible to increase life expectancy. Another reason, according to experts, rests in the days of the Soviet Union. Migration flows increased, mechanical growth was positive. However, by 1991, those who had moved to Estonia in the forties and fifties began to age, and those who die became more than those who are able to give birth.
Fertility has also decreased due to a change in outlook on age, when it is time to become parents. Previously, women gave birth to twenty-two years, today they are in no hurry to become mothers, the birth of the first child is postponed. Young people want to first get on their feet, purchase housing, a car.
Estonian population by years
Natural growth, general population growth and migration growth in Estonia have started to go negative since 1991. Estonian population dynamics :
- 1980 - 1 472 190 people;
- 1990 - 1,570,599 people;
- 1995 - 1,448,075 people;
- 2000 - 1 372 710 people; natural growth - minus 5,336, total growth - minus 7,116, migration processes - 1,830 people;
- 2013 - 1,320,174 people; natural growth - minus 1 713, total growth - minus 5 043, migration processes - 3 300 people;
In 2016, more than fourteen thousand people were born in Estonia, fifteen and a half thousand died. Natural growth - minus one and a half thousand, migration processes - more than two thousand people.
Change in the ethnic composition of Estonia
The ethnic composition of Estonia has changed over thirty years. But not significantly. Given the Estonian population, the following data are obtained:
- 1989: Estonians 61.5%, Russians 30.3%, Ukrainians 3.1, Belarusians 1.8, Finns 1.1;
- 2011: Estonians 68.7%, Russians 24.8%, Ukrainians 1.7%, Belarusians 1.0, Finns 0.6%;
- 2016: Estonians 69%, Russians 25%, Ukrainians 1.7%, Belarusians 1%, Finns 0.6%.
Russians mainly live in Tallinn, the capital of Estonia. The most “Russian” city in Estonia is Narva, where ninety-seven percent of Russians are ethnic.
Estonian cities by population
The list of cities in terms of population is headed by Tallinn - 440,702 people. Next, you can make the top ten most populated territories of the republic (people):
- Tartu - 97 322.
- Narva - 58,375.
- Pärnu - 39,784.
- Castle Järve - 36 662,
- Viljandi - 17,549.
- Maardu - 17,141.
- Rakvere - 15,303.
- Sillamäe - 13,964.
- Kuressaare - 13,000.
- Johvi - 12,567.
The smallest population in Pussi, just over a thousand people; in Kallast and Myzakule - eight hundred each.
How migration affects Estonia’s demography
Mechanical growth leads to a decrease in demography. In Soviet times, many ethnic groups came to Estonia because the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was created here, through which Jews, ethnic Germans and Finns could leave for their historical homeland.
Moreover, the population in Estonia was very mobile. For example, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, many did not want to stay and left the country. Emigration intensified. But after 2011, the reverse process began.
Today, the population of Estonia continues to decline and age. The Department of Statistics of the Republic makes such calculations: over a quarter of a century, the country's population decreased by 200,000 people, by 2040 the population will fall by another 10%.
Resettlement of the Baltic states
For the Baltic states, the massive departure of citizens to other countries is becoming a serious problem. Moreover, half of those who left Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are people from 18 to 30 years old, 70% are people from fourteen to forty years old.
Most from Latvia and Lithuania move to Britain and Scandinavia. A small number emigrate to the United States, Russia and Canada. Estonians mostly choose Finland.
In terms of population decline, Latvia and Lithuania are among the European leaders. In 2016, 8,000 more people left Latvia than arrived. Lithuania - for 30,000 people.
Only Estonia managed to break the sad trend. The country begins to slow population growth due to migration. For 2015-2016 19,000 people left Estonia, but 24,500 returned or came to live.
In a situation where an increase in the demographic minus is expected, the Baltic states have no choice but to increase the population through attractive social policies for migrants. Lithuania, for example, offers the easiest way to obtain a residence permit in the European Union and a low tax rate for entrepreneurs. Foreign students in Estonia can stay in the country after graduation.
But greater effect in the Baltic countries is expected from measures aimed at increasing the birth rate.
Child benefits in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania
In Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, free delivery of labor has been organized in state maternity hospitals, as well as medical appointments, tests and ultrasound. But those who wish can pay for additional comfort:
- separate ward - from 50 to 80 € per day;
- the ability to choose a specific doctor - from 400 to 600 €;
- individual approach to childbirth - from 50 to 1,000 €.
The duration of parental leave in Estonia is three years, in Lithuania - two years, in Latvia - one and a half years.
In each republic, parental benefits are considered differently.
A lump sum payment for child birth in Lithuania exceeds 400 €; payment of maternity leave in the amount of four mother's salaries; parental allowance equals one annual leave.
A one-time payment in Latvia is about 420 €. Maternity leave payment - 43% of the mother’s salary. The allowance for the care of a child up to two years old is 3 300 €. The amount of the allowance for the first child is 11 € each, paid monthly until the age of sixteen.
In Estonia, a one-time lump sum is 320 €. Paying for maternity leave takes into account the average salary. Children allowance up to sixteen - 50 € monthly. The amount of such parental benefit up to one and a half years depends on the salary of the parents. Perhaps this is due to the fact that the country now belongs to the European Union, the standard of living is steadily rising, salaries are rising, financial assistance is being provided to various segments of the population.
In addition, the country has various programs to support large families. For example, an Estonian family with three children, only child benefits, receives five hundred euros per month. In Latvia, the allowance is less and amounts to seventy euros.