There are various ways to collect and analyze data for crime and criminal justice research. The methodology of criminological research includes certain methods, techniques, means of collecting, processing, analyzing and evaluating crime information. The causes of this social phenomenon are studied, as well as the personality of the offender. To combat crime, a number of criminological forecasting methods are used .
The best predictive models
Criminology is developing both by developing consistent and comprehensive theories about crime and its causes, and by systematically collecting and analyzing observations of the social world in connection with such theories. Such observations are usually called data. A variety of data is used to help solve crime problems, which are the products of a number of research methods.
Typically, they are generated using data collection forms (e.g., structured interviews) and analyzed (e.g., correlation analysis). This is done within the framework of any broad research structure. The variety of data is partly a reflection of the diversity of the issues under consideration and the many aspects of such problems that are investigated using various theoretical approaches. Any particular case of criminological research is a special combination between the problem, theory and method, and the data that are used are the results of this combination.
Varieties
Key issues for researchers are how best to come up with useful predictive models, consider error costs, and evaluate non-linear relationships. This is a new field of application for research. There are two types of criminological forecasts:
- Short-term crime forecasting - requires forecasting data by space and time series, such as monthly crime rates in homogeneous square grid cells within a city. In this setting, it is extremely important to manage the problem of estimating small areas. To increase accuracy, it is necessary to collect data on grid cells in one form or another.
- Long-term crime forecast - the long-term perspective is based on an extensive and fascinating literature on criminology plus modeling approaches from the field of spatial econometrics. Prediction, the traditional goal of science, is a prerequisite for any effective crime prevention and control program. Crime patterns in the long-term forecast depend on the nature of the local population and land use, which do not change rapidly over time.
Assessment and forecasting methods
If we seek to control criminal behavior, we must first be able to predict it. Any forecasting method provides simply a way to summarize past experiences in the hope of finding useful guidance for future decisions. This problem is quite relevant, which explains the emergence of an extensive literature and a variety of criminological forecasting methods .
Along with such studies in various social problem areas, the solution of theoretical and technical issues in the field of forecasting has increased. It includes the study of logic in the study of personality, psychometric problems and role-playing methods in evaluating various treatment methods.
Crime is a holistic social organism.
A social organism is an ideological concept in which a society or social structure is regarded as a “living organism". All elements of society have a function that maintains the stability and cohesion of this system. Crime as such is one of the products of the vital activity and existence of society, which acts as a full-fledged social mechanism and is a socially mediated phenomenon that contains criminally dangerous consequences for society.
A characteristic feature of social life can be called the uneven and dynamic nature of the processes that occur in it. In this regard, a prediction is necessary regarding the direction in which these or other events follow, what will help this, or, conversely, provide resistance. Forensic forecasting using its methods is designed to examine and investigate crime along with other criminological problems.
Criminological research methods
Crime as a social phenomenon has its own statistical laws. Research methods include a number of qualitative and quantitative predictions of certain trends and patterns of crime. Criminology uses only those of them that at this stage are applicable in practice. These methods of criminological forecasting include extrapolation, the method of expert assessments and modeling.
Extrapolation
Extrapolation as a method of criminological forecasting is the dissemination of conclusions that were obtained in the context of the study of crime in the past and present. Her future trends are also taken into account. Since crime and the phenomena that are associated with it can be represented in a dynamic structural way (in absolute and relative terms), the future will be predicted using the same quantitative units.
Predictive conclusions can be divided depending on the types, groups of crimes, their causative components and the criminological characteristics of crimes. Extrapolation makes it possible to obtain probabilistic predictive conclusions. This applies not only to dynamics, but also to the structure of such a social phenomenon as crime. The accuracy of such forecasting is relative, but deviations are possible, since society is an open system.
Possible may be unexpected social transformations (wars, revolutions, riots) in society, which can radically change the criminological situation in the world. Extrapolation gives good results with short-term forecasts. As the term increases, accuracy decreases.
Expert Assessment Method
Expert assessment as a method of criminological forecasting is in addition to extrapolation. It is presented in the form of comments by highly qualified professionals who help establish the likely trends of crime and its causal basis. Expert judgment works well for medium to long-term forecasting prospects.
The main disadvantage of this method is the subjectivity of the assessment and the informal nature. The right choice of candidates, their undeniable competence, the use of statistical and mathematical techniques for summarizing expert estimates and comparing them with the results of objective methods for predicting crime help increase the chances of success.
Modeling
This method of criminological forecasting as modeling is the construction of mathematical models of crime. The model is an existing in reality or fictional image of certain objects or phenomena, which is used under certain conditions, is able to replace them. This method is quite promising and in demand in terms of research. There are 2 directions for today, including modeling, which has the form of a multiple regression equation, and modeling in the form of a matrix.
Individual Forecasting
An individual role in criminology is played by individual forecasting. This method is aimed at studying individual criminal behavior, it is at the stage of theoretical development and is being applied in practice haphazardly. This is due to the difficulties of predicting the complex interaction of a particular personality, its social environment and certain life circumstances.
The human essence itself is complex in nature, which leads to difficulties in the methodology of cognition and prediction of the behavior of a particular person. This method works well in relation to those persons who have already been related to the underworld. The main task of such forecasting is the selection of those candidates from a certain list with whom it is worthwhile to carry out individual preventive work in order to prevent the commission of crimes or offenses.