Currently, no area of society can be managed without forecasting as a method of foresight. Forecasting is used in various fields: in economics, management, sports, industry, etc. It is possible to draw preliminary conclusions about various processes, phenomena, reactions and operations using extrapolation and tendency.
The essence of forecasting
Socio-economic forecasting is an important scientific factor in the strategies and tactics of social development. Therefore, research questions and forecasting methods are quite relevant. The problem of forecasting relevance is also determined by the degree of risk (for example, financial risks) in decision-making in areas such as regional management, inventory control, production planning, financial planning, etc.
Prediction results are used to support decision making. Therefore, the nature of the decisions is determined by most of the desirable characteristics of the forecasting system. The study of this problem should help answer questions about what to predict, what form forecasting should have, what temporary elements should be included, what is the necessary accuracy of the forecast.
The uncertainty of the external environment in the future and the lack of information about the state of an object under the influence of various external and internal conditions make the forecasting task rather complicated, and the process itself cannot always fit into a certain algorithm. This leads to the fact that researchers begin to look for new ways to solve problems using probability theory and mathematical statistics, combinatorial theory and nonlinear dynamics, etc.
The development of work on issues related to forecasts is carried out in such main areas as:
- intensification of theoretical and applied research of several groups of methods that meet the requirements of various objects and types of forecasting;
- development and practical implementation of special methods and procedures for using various teaching methods during a specific study;
- search for paths and algorithmic presentation of forecasting methods, as well as their implementation using computers.
Classification problem
The question of studying and categorizing forecasting methods is very relevant, due to the possibilities of its application in accordance with the required type of forecasting object and forecast form. It is necessary to study the theoretical and methodological aspects of forecasting, to determine the role of forecasting in the facility management system. It is important to clarify the tasks, functions and principles of forecasting, to organize the classification functions of forecasting, to find out its essence. Another task is to characterize and analyze current forecasting methods, to analyze the possibilities of using various forecasting methods in solving various types of practical problems.
Definition
Forecasting is defined as a method in which theoretical and practical steps are taken to develop forecasts. This definition is general and allows you to understand this term quite broadly: from simple extrapolation calculations to complex multi-stage procedures for expert studies.
Basic concepts
There are some basic concepts within the subject under study.
The forecasting phase is part of the forecast development process, which has certain tasks, methods and results. The division into stages is associated with the features of the construction of the process, which includes:
- a systematic description of the object of forecasting;
- data collection;
- modeling;
- forecast.
A forecasting model is a model of a forecasting object that provides information about the possible states of the forecasting object in the future and (or) how and when they can be implemented.
Forecasting methods are a set of special rules and methods (one or more) that ensure the development of the forecast.
The forecasting system is a system of methods that operate in accordance with the basic principles of forecasting. Implementation methods are a group of experts, a set of programs, etc. Forecasting systems can be automated and non-automated.
The object of forecasting is a process, system or phenomenon whose state is determined by the forecast. The object of the forecast variable is the quantitative characteristic of the forecast object, which is taken as a variable related to the time range of the forecast.
The forecasting technique is a set of special rules and methods used to develop specific forecasts.
The forecast can be simple and comprehensive. A simple forecast is a method that cannot be divided into simpler forecasting methods. Integrated forecasting is a method consisting of a coherent combination of several simple methods.
Method Consistency
At present, the problem of choosing a forecast method has several criteria, this process is poorly designed and not fully structured. The fundamental principle for solving such a problem is the principle of consistency.
A systematic approach allows you to discover and implement the principle of consistency. It is universal and corresponds to the method of analysis and study of any complex systems.
In the framework of this approach, the properties, structure and functions of objects, phenomena and processes as a whole are studied by representing them as a system with all complex inter-element relationships, the mutual influence of elements on the system and the environment, as well as the effect of the system on structural elements.
The consistency of forecasting methods and models is understood as the possibility of their joint use, which makes it possible to make a consistent and consistent forecast for the development of an object. This method is based on the study of current and future trends of regularity, according to the specified parameters, available resources, identified needs and their dynamics.
Methodology
The forecasting system includes a certain procedure for using the model for the formation of a comprehensive forecast of the studied object or phenomenon. This method helps determine the forecasting methodology. It includes a set of forecasting models, calculation methods and methods.
Especially important is a systematic research method for solving complex problems. The need for a systematic approach to forecasting follows from the features of the development of science and technology. A large number of elements, objects of various types, complex relationships between them and the peculiarities of the object's behavior in the external environment led to the creation of large technical and industrial (organizational and economic) systems.
Classification Basics
Currently, along with a significant number of published forecasting methods, there are many ways to classify them. The main objectives of the classification of forecasting methods:
- support for research and analysis;
- support for the process of choosing a method for developing object forecasts.
Today it is difficult to propose a general classification that is equally consistent with these two goals.
Classification of forecasting methods can be carried out in accordance with several attributes. One of the most important classification criteria is the degree of formalization, which quite fully covers forecasting methods.
In general, the classification is open, since it provides an opportunity to increase the number of elements at levels and increase the number of levels due to further fragmentation and specification of elements of a finite level.
Another approach to defining
According to a more precise definition of the concept of forecasting, types of forecasts, it is a set of methods and ways of thinking that allow us to judge its (object) future development. It is based on the analysis of historical data, exogenous (external) and endogenous (internal) relationships of the forecasting object, as well as their measurement in the framework of this phenomenon or process.
The classification criteria are also the unity of the classification attribute at each level; disjoint classification of one section; and open classification schemes.
In turn, each level in the scheme is determined by its own classification criterion: the degree of formalization, the general principle of action; a way to get a forecast.
Method classification
From the point of view of the general approach, many forecasting methods aimed at solving applied problems of analyzing the state of an object and predicting its current development can be presented in the framework of the following classification.
The main types of forecasting, in accordance with the degree of formalization, can be intuitive and formalized.
Intuitive can be individual and collective.
Individual, in turn, are divided into interviews, questionnaires and processing of analytical hierarchies. Collective methods include Delphi, brainstorming, expert commission, scenario building.
Formalized methods can be mathematical, system-structural, associative. Also in this category are methods of promoting information.
Mathematical methods are divided into two categories: statistical and extrapolar.
The first category is represented by correlation analysis, regression analysis, time series models, adaptive models.
The second category is represented by the moving average and exponential smoothing.
Mathematical methods also include combination methods.
System-structural methods are represented by morphological analysis, functional-hierarchical modeling, network modeling and matrix modeling.
Associative methods include simulation, historical analogy method, data mining.
Types of forecasting also include methods for promoting information represented by analysis of the flow of publications, the significance of the invention, and patent analysis.
Characterization of intuitive methods
Expert (intuitive, heuristic) types of forecasting are based on information received from professional experts as a result of systematic processes of identification and synthesis. These methods require experts to have deep theoretical knowledge and practical skills in collecting and synthesizing all available information about the forecasting object.
Intuition (unstructured knowledge) helps specialists identify trends in the development of the forecasting object without any basic information about it. For example, the forecast of demand for new goods and services, the effectiveness of innovation, the end of economic reform, world prices for energy products, metals (non-ferrous and precious) and even currencies.
Such types and methods of forecasting, as expert, are usually used in the following cases:
- when it is impossible to consider the influence of many factors due to the significant complexity of the object of forecasting;
- in the presence of a high degree of uncertainty of the available information in the forecast database.
Thus, intuitive methods are used when the forecasting object is either too simple or complex and unpredictable, so it is almost impossible to analytically take into account the influence of many factors.
Collective methods of expert judgment are based on the fact that collective consciousness provides higher accuracy of results. In addition, when processing the results obtained, unproductive (extraordinary, abstract) ideas may arise.
Characterization of formalized methods
Formalized (factual) types of forecasting are based on the actual and available information of the forecasting object and its past development. They are used in cases where the information about the object of forecasting is mainly quantitative, and the influence of various factors can be explained by mathematical formulas.
The advantage of this group of methods is the objectivity of the forecast, the expansion of the possibility of considering various options. However, in the formalization methodology, many aspects remain outside the analysis. Thus, the greater the degree of formalization, the poorer the model.
Until recently, the statistical method was the main method in forecasting practice. This is mainly due to the fact that statistical methods rely on the analysis of techniques, development and application practices, which have a rather long history.
The process based on statistical types of planning and forecasting is divided into two stages. Firstly, a generalization of the data collected for a certain period of time, as well as the creation of a process model based on this generalization. The model is described as analytical expressions of the development trend (extrapolation trend) or as a functional dependence on one or more factors of the argument (regression equation). Any kind of forecasting model should include the choice of the form of the equation that describes the dynamics of the phenomenon, the relationship and the assessment of its parameters using a specific method.
The second stage is the forecast itself. At this stage, based on different patterns, the expected value of the projected pattern, size or characteristic is determined.
Of course, the results obtained cannot be regarded as the final conclusion. During their assessment and use of factors, conditions and limitations, all factors that were not involved in the specification and model building should be taken into account. Their adjustment should be carried out in accordance with the expected change in the circumstances of their formation.
Method selection principle
A variety of types of planning and forecasting allows you to choose the best way to solve a specific problem. Properly selected methods significantly improve the quality of forecasting, as they provide functional completeness, reliability and accuracy of the forecast, as well as provide an opportunity to save time and reduce the cost of forecasting.
The choice of method is affected by:
- the essence of the practical problem that must be solved;
- dynamic characteristics of the forecasting object in the external environment;
- type and nature of available information, typical type of forecasting object;
- a requirement regarding forecasting results and other features of a particular problem.
All these factors should be considered as a single system, while only insignificant factors can be excluded from consideration. In practice, when choosing a forecasting method, it is recommended to consider two main factors - cost and accuracy.
When choosing a method, consider the options:
- availability of statistics for the required period;
- competence of the forecaster, availability of equipment;
- the required time to collect and analyze information.
Forecasts in various areas
The presented methods in one or another combination are used in various fields. Among the types of social forecasting, collective and individual intuitive methods can be distinguished. Also in this area are widely used mathematical methods. They are also the main type of economic forecasting. It, in fact, is a system of scientific research of a quantitative and qualitative nature. It is used at the preliminary stage of developing decisions of an economic nature.
To compile various types of forecasts, forecasting is often resorted to in an area such as sports. This applies to a variety of processes: the development of sports and its individual types, competitions, sports training systems, technical and tactical features, the emergence of new sports records, etc. Of the huge number of types of forecasting in sports, they use, in particular, scientific, empirical and intuitive methods: logical analysis methods; expert evaluations; extrapolation; analogies; modeling, etc.
Of particular interest is the preparation of forecasts in criminology, during which the future state of crime is known , the factors affecting its changes, a criminological forecast is developed. , () , , .
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