To make a scientifically sound conclusion about the probabilistic state in the future of the object of study, about development trends in crime, criminological forecasting is carried out. This work allows you to understand the identity of the offender, the consequences of his activities and determine measures to combat it. The whole process, during which processing, analysis of the necessary information is carried out, is called forecasting. It will be discussed further.
general description
Considering the concept of criminological forecasting, types and methods of such a study, it is worth noting its main characteristics. Its object is the identity of the offender, as well as illegal actions in general and the factors that provoke them. The forecasting process assesses the possible consequences of crime. On the basis of the study, effective measures to combat crime or its individual types are being developed.
The subject of criminological forecasting can be the trends, condition and period of development of a particular research object. Their choice depends on the purpose of the analysis.
There are different types and methods of criminological forecasting. According to the timing, they distinguish:
- Operational forecasting. The object of study is considered in perspective up to a month.
- Short-term forecasting. The lead time in this case is from 1 to 12 months.
- Mid-term forecasting. It is carried out for the future from 1 to 5 years.
- Long-term forecasting. Lead times may exceed 15 years.
If necessary, other terms of criminological forecasting can be applied. Also, such a study may have a specific scope and direction. There are the following types of forecasts:
- crime;
- the identity of the offender;
- state of the object of study;
- crime factors;
- consequences of offenses;
- crime control measures;
- development trends of the object of study.
In addition, there are other types of forecasting. There are three main varieties of it:
- Individual criminological forecasting of criminal behavior. Allows you to determine the likelihood of an unlawful act by a specific person.
- Prediction of the development of criminology as a science. In this direction, the determination of prospects for the development of specific areas in the scientific field is carried out.
- Crime forecast. This direction includes initial and recurrent analysis, a study of men and women, individual groups, types of offenses, etc.
Forecasting can also be scientific and mundane. In the first case, the study is based on reliable information obtained using general and private scientific methods. Ordinary forecasting is also called empirical. It is based on daily experience, the practice of law enforcement officers. These are just everyday observations, intuition. Such a forecast is based on subjective ideas.
Prediction Stages
In the course of studying the concepts and methods of criminological forecasting, the stages of its implementation should be considered. The whole process is as follows:
- Determining the direction of future forecasting. Goals, tasks are set, hypotheses are put forward. At this stage, the study lead time is selected.
- Reliable information on phenomena and processes is being collected.
- Search forecasting. Possible options for the development of events in the future are selected. At the same time, factors with influence, perspective problems that must be resolved are taken into account.
- Normative forecasting. Identification of further actions in identifying certain problems. At the same time, standards are applied that determine the volume, structure and resources for solving negative situations.
- Justification of forecasts, assessment of their reliability and probability of occurrence of certain events.
- Making recommendations to improve the management of crime control.
Tasks
Criminological forecasting and planning allows you to solve a certain range of problems. After all, the system is built in such a way that, when fulfilled, the main goal can be achieved. Tasks are a kind of sequential action, like steps that advance research forward. The main ones are:
- Definition of indicators that reflect a retrospective of the development or change in crime. Based on the information received, undesirable patterns and trends are identified, and ways are found for changing the situation for the better.
- All circumstances that have an impact on long-term plans are clarified. The degree of their impact on the object of study is established.
- A comprehensive crime control strategy is being developed. Its component is the choice of an effective direction for the development of law enforcement agencies.
- Possible changes are established in the structure, level or dynamics of crime indicators in the long term. Factors that influence such changes are also identified.
Description of forecasting features
Considering the concept and significance of criminological forecasting, attention should be paid to the essence of its main types. There are only three of them:
- The future development of criminology as a science.
- Forecasting the crime rate.
- Determining the future behavior of the identity of the criminal.
When considering the concept of criminological forecasting of the first category, it is assumed to determine the development of future research in the field of forensic science. Prospects can be established for individual areas of this science.
When conducting crime forecasting, it is supposed to answer the following questions:
- What will be the main crime indicators in the future? These include its level and dynamics, structure and character.
- What is the likelihood of any changes in the field of crime indicators in general or in its individual components?
- What factors will have the greatest impact on crime and with what intensity?
- What categories of people are more likely to join the ranks of criminals in the future?
- What tools will be most effective in the fight against crime?
The criminological forecasting and crime planning of an individual is allocated into a separate category. The probability of committing a specific type of crime in the future by a specific person is determined. At the same time, knowledge in the field of personality psychology is actively applied. Take into account the features of previous human activities.
It also examines which social group an individual belongs to, and what influence the society surrounding him directly influences on his decision-making. To do this, determine the laws of the statistical nature of the group. Prediction in this case is carried out at several levels:
- General crime rates.
- A separate area of forensics, for example, violence, relapse and so on.
- The study of certain types of crimes. It can be banditry, racketeering, murder, etc.
- Research in the field of certain groups of society. They are formed according to some signs. For example, it can be age, marital status, education, profession and so on.
Prediction of individual behavior is based on personality psychology. This technique is applied only to persons who have previously committed crimes, behaved antisocially, that is, a certain contingent of people who correspond to a specific description is selected. In relation to them, preventive work is being carried out. This allows you to prevent the commission of these persons illegal actions.
Forecasting Functions
The importance of criminological forecasting is great. It has several functions, the main of which are:
- Formation of plans to combat crime, as well as preventing the commission of unlawful acts in the future.
- Development of a strategy to combat the unlawful actions of individuals or their groups. This work is carried out not only by state bodies, but also by relevant public organizations.
- The fight against crime through forecasting is systematic. Certain tasks are set that allow us to achieve a common, main goal. This allows you to monitor the implementation of the program, make timely decisions on the choice of certain effects on crime. At the same time, its type, causes of occurrence, as well as reasons leading to illegal actions are taken into account. Planning also involves taking into account conditions that contribute to an increase in crime.
- Development, strengthening of bodies and systems that are responsible for the implementation of the developed preventive measures to combat illegal actions.
Criminological forecasting and planning of the fight against crime at the legislative level provides an opportunity to decide on additional actions. A change in the areas of activity in the field of criminal, penal and procedural legislation is also determined.
Criminological forecasting and planning, crime prevention allows you to perform a number of functions:
- To obtain relevant reliable information on the possible directions of development and the consequences of the criminal situation in the country in the long term.
- Carry out high-quality planning in the field of developing the fight against crime, developing effective measures to prevent illegal actions.
- Assistance in the development and implementation of special programs aimed at solving problems in society and the economy.
- The solution of the most pressing issues at the legislative level, which allows to ensure certain relations in society. Changes or additions are made to relevant legislative acts that regulate various spheres of public life.
- Conducting a substantive examination in the field of forensics, which will allow to develop and approve the necessary bills in the current situation, other regulatory legal acts.
- Determining whether a positive or negative effect on the general situation will be the adoption of certain measures aimed at preventing criminal activity, certain areas, types or actions of groups of offenders.
The most common methods
There are different methods of criminological crime forecasting. They should not be confused with techniques. The main methods are:
- Criminological forecasting of crime. This method allows you to study the object of study from a certain point of view. The choice depends on the purpose of such an analysis. As a result, based on objective data, a probabilistic forecast of the development of the situation in the future is compiled.
- Factographic method. The source of information for such forecasting is the information reflected in the official documentation. It can be statistical, historical data.
- Extrapolation. One of the most common forecasting methods. It is built using special technology. First, one part of the phenomenon is observed, and then the result is transferred to the entire community of the object of study. At the same time, his history is studied, certain patterns are revealed. They are carried forward.
- Expert methods. Based on an assessment by the appropriate staff of the team of its individual representatives. For this, surveys are most often conducted.
- Delphic method. It was developed by the forensic industry in the United States. This is a kind of expert assessment of the object of study. In this case, a certain quantitative characteristic is taken into account. Each expert is interviewed in several stages. Questions and answers to them using this approach are being clarified. If the forecast of some experts deviated noticeably from the majority opinion, they should justify their opinion in the next rounds.
When considering the discipline, the teacher can say: "What are the methods of criminological forecasting that are most often applied in practice." It should be noted that all of them are a set of rules and techniques of a factual or expert approach. These are the main directions of forecasting in the field of criminology.
Extrapolation
In the course of studying the discipline, the teacher can give the students the task: "What are the methods of criminological forecasting that are most often applied in practice." In this case, it is necessary to name and characterize such approaches:
- Extrapolation.
- Expert survey.
Extrapolation is an analysis during which information is collected on trends regarding the object of research in the past and present. This analogy is carried over to future periods. In the process of building trends, they look for patterns, revealing which you can make a forecast for some perspective. At the same time, it is accepted that the same processes will affect the object of study in the future. This allows, while maintaining the dynamics, to determine whether the investigated indicator will increase or decrease.
This kind of criminological crime forecasting should be considered as an example in order to understand the main principle of the method. So, for example, in 2019 you need to make a forecast for 2023 and 2024. The period that will be the base can also be called analyzed. The future is called the forecast period.
It should be noted that in the course of the work presented, a certain rule applies. The deeper (longer) the base period, the shorter the forecast period, the more accurate the forecast. It is much harder to do such work in the future 10 years ahead than in the next year or two years. Therefore, in forensics in practice, forecasting for the next 12 months is more often carried out. But sometimes this is not enough. Therefore, the forecast is made for the next few years or even decades.
During the analysis of the base period, certain trends are identified. In some social groups (for example, among adolescents) crime is higher. This trend is expected to continue in the coming years, which allows us to outline ways to combat a specific type of violation.
For this reason, forecasting cannot be carried out without determining the subject of research. The objectivity of such work allows solving specific problems. In this case, the forecasting will be effective. It does not aim to satisfy someone's curiosity. You need to know exactly what means the relevant organization will have in the process of combating crime. This will allow us to assess the current situation, identifying the optimal ways of allocating available resources. The most important areas require attention in the first place.
Expert survey
Considering the concept of criminological forecasting, one more popular method should be noted - an expert survey. It is held among criminologists. These are workers and researchers, the selection of which is carried out on the basis of their experience, qualifications, knowledge and range of interests. These are people who are well aware of the processes and phenomena in the field of criminology, which significantly affect general trends.
A questionnaire is sent or distributed to experts in the field of criminology. It contains questions about whether the crime rate will decrease or increase, and how its individual types will change. It is also proposed to justify their own vision of the situation in the future. Experts also indicate which factors will have the greatest impact on the situation.
Often the survey is conducted during scientific conferences, trainings or seminars. When experts are present in the room, they are interviewed through questionnaires in writing. Further, the answers are summarized, on the basis of which the forecast is made. For this, matrices can be created that allow you to take into account the number of identical answers, as well as the significance of the opinions of certain experts.
Forensic forecasting using the method of expert assessments is most often done for the long term.The most popular peer review method is the Delphi method. In this case, the question is posed to experts in such a way that they get a quantitative description. The procedure is carried out in several stages. This allows you to clarify the answers. If the opinion deviated from the majority, the expert explains his position. This makes it possible to perform a thorough analysis of opinions quickly and with less resources. In this case, the result will be high.
Modeling
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