Comparison of the Middle East problem with such a phenomenon as a tectonic shift made by the director of the Information and Press Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Maria Zakharova, was very puzzling and even frightening almost all foreign television channels. In her statement, they saw not only a challenge, but also a threat to NATO and the United States.
Apocalypse per se
Readers who have not watched the movie San Andreas Fault will explain in detail what the tectonic shift is and how to apply this concept to today's political landscape. To what extent this phenomenon threatens humanity, even that huge interest that is observed in the world to the possibility of a close apocalypse explains.
The causes of its onset are also considered sensitive sleeping supervolcanoes, and the third world war, followed by a nuclear winter, and, of course, a tectonic shift. Humanity is so worried about its fate that even a simple comparison with this geological area from the lips of a politician received a huge response in the world media.
About tramps
Geologists easily read the annals of centuries and even millennia. We know from them that the sandy soils of deserts are stored in huge deposits in the south of England, the remains of ancient giant ferns have been found in Antarctica, and in Africa - obvious traces of glaciers covering it. This suggests that geological epochs also changed the climate. The shift of tectonic plates intensified volcanic activity, ash obscured the sun, rising into the upper atmosphere for many years, a long winter came. Ice ages killed most of all life on Earth. For example, only the species of birds after the last glaciation remained less than fifteen percent, and it is difficult to imagine that their current diversity is a miserable remnant of its former splendor.
There are quite a few very different scientific explanations for the causes of global change. One of them, the most common and most evidence-based, suggests that the continents do not stand still. A small example clearly shows what a tectonic shift means. If you attach the east of South America to the west of Africa, they will combine almost without gaps. So, the Atlantic Ocean did not always separate them. There are many such examples. And the fact that America will face terrible tectonic shifts is not a threat from Maria Zakharova’s lips. This is nature promises. And, since Hollywood has already flooded the cinema with many hundreds of films about the inevitable end of the world, where even climatic weapons go into action, it means that the Americans fully anticipate and understand the impending danger.
Tectonic shift
The definition of this phenomenon has been given for a long time and precisely: it is a break of a single solid continental plate located under the earth's crust. What threatens humanity with tectonic plate faults? The scenario is this: one, even a small fault, will cover the planet with a chain reaction. The melted glaciers will release the plates from pressure with their enormous mass, the earth's crust will rise, ocean water will rush into the depths of the faults. Magma under the bark is hot - about one thousand two hundred degrees Celsius. Steam with basalt dust and gas will be with great force and everywhere will be thrown out of the ground. Showers will begin - unprecedented, akin to the flood. Volcanoes will wake up - all to one. After that, indescribable tsunamis will sweep away everything from the face of the planet. There is enough time for the whole alignment from the beginning of the fault to the eruptions of volcanoes, you can even run away if you find where. After the tsunami starts in a matter of hours, the earth will be empty.
The continents we inhabited formed two hundred million years ago, when Pangea, the hypercontinent, split. The deserted vagrants "took root" at approximately equal distances from each other, but still they are drawn to each other. Scientists predict that after some fifty million years they will reunite. In the 70s of the last century, a model of the alleged movement of the continents was created. It turns out that the Pacific platform pretty quickly moves towards the North American plate of tectonic plate. The San Andrea tectonic shift threatens just at the junction of these two plates. There are frequent earthquakes of destructive strength, which happened just a hundred years ago in San Francisco and Los Angeles. America is panicky afraid of geological disasters, which is why Maria Zakharova’s words were perceived as if Russia was threatening the USA with tectonic shifts. What exactly did the director of the department mean?
To the history of the issue
Of course, this was a warning about the threat, but not from Russia promised "terrible tectonic shifts" (Zakharova quote). They will happen if the United States insists on the change of the Syrian leader Assad, who is at war with the Islamic state. Then Islamist radicals and terrorists, with whom America is already very familiar, will inevitably come to power. The events of Iraq in 2003 and Libya in 2011 (after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi) speak for themselves. The Islamic state will inevitably grow and become much stronger. This is what the Russian Foreign Ministry is constantly signaling. Then the rampant terrorism may well exceed the dangers that bring tectonic shifts. Zakharova was told just that, and the conclusions were absolutely incorrect.
The Middle East in 2016 did not find stability, negative progress continues there: bloodshed in Syria, lack of stabilization in Libya, riots of Kurdish autonomy in Iraq, the Yemeni conflict worsened, the rebels of Saudi Arabia inflict more serious blows on the country's economy and financial situation, many years leading hostilities, got involved in the Middle East conflicts of South Sudan. It is from the Middle East that all tectonic shifts in politics are coming. The situation in all respects is crisis, and this crisis is expanding rapidly, chaos is growing, waves of refugees have swept Europe, creating a security threat and huge problems there. The year ended, and he made no decisions. If the last stronghold of the fight against terrorists, the “dictator” Bashar al-Assad, will lay down his arms, the 2016 “tectonic shifts” will sweep the whole world.
Ways of warfare
Daesh continues to build up its military potential, and despite the liberation of the territories that began, a walk through the suburbs of Mosul with the Iraqi army with its supporting USA and a coalition did not work. The threat of terrorism is not only not eliminated, it is growing, and therefore requires very special, truly serious efforts on a global scale of forces that have united in this struggle for the complete victory of this evil. The level of US influence on the Middle East situation has decreased, and it has decreased very significantly. The current administration is leaving, as if deliberately weakening the potential and capabilities of its own country in this region, it is now impossible to recognize that the United States is a leading player in the Middle East. And the change of power there takes place in an environment that is itself capable of initiating tectonic shifts in America (and this is not about geological faults).
But Russia in the Middle East in 2016 distinguished itself by significantly expanding the circle of partners, including Egypt, Israel and Bahrain, made progress in cooperation with Qatar, agreed with OPEC to limit the level of oil produced (even managed to get along with Saudi Arabia), normalized relations with Turkey . Formed a new team to resolve the situation in Syria, ousting the United States from the region. These are Iran, Turkey and Russia. Russian aerospace forces are seriously helping the Syrian army win victories over terrorists. Freed by Aleppo. All this is regarded by the world as purely Russian political victories. That is why Maria Zakharova spoke so clearly and vividly about tectonic shifts. Losing a partner like Bashar al-Assad will nullify these victories. Especially since the IS is not completely bloodless, the current situation seems to our diplomats to be rather shaky.
Crimea and the Middle East
In order to take a break from pressing political problems, let us return to the issue of geological faults and continental plates, since every day more and more information appears, and from time to time it looks like a curiosity, despite all the reliability. Scientists from different countries studying geological deposits deep in the crust revealed a shift in tectonic plates, resulting in tectonic activity in the Middle East and neighboring regions.
Full member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexander Ipatov announced the latest reliable research results (including applied astronomy). Sensation: Crimea peninsula is gradually approaching Russia. After all, the plate did not sail to Turkey or Greece, the tectonic shift of the Crimea is geologically directed home. The meeting of the peninsula with the mainland, however, will not happen so soon, several tens of millions of years will have to wait. But the republics have met since 2014 together.
World politics and tectonic shifts in it
The results of last year can be fully summarized only when the forthcoming policy of the new administration of the United States, both in the Middle East and in general, is global. However, the contradictions between the Islamic world and Western countries are unlikely to be eliminated soon, and the growth of xenophobia will probably continue, which, of course, can poison the entire system of relations of both the Islamic and non-Islamic world. Throughout the year we observed enormous changes in world politics, which were quite akin to tectonic shifts in their significance.
First of all, it is necessary to mention the thoroughly shaken world of Brexit, when Great Britain decided to leave the European Union. Then followed unexpectedly convincing victory of Donald trump in the US presidential election, which not only no one planned, but also did not allow the slightest thought about such a turn of events. If we add to this the significantly strengthened right-wing and conservative forces in European countries (primarily in France and Germany), then the progress is already irreversible, in 2017 it is unlikely that they will stop developing.
The center of gravity
The value spectrum of the entire western part of the world has shifted greatly, since right-wing conservative, populist and nationalist waves have made the palette of moods of society much more diverse, adding completely unexpected new tones. Protest moods appear even where they have never been, in countries for which this is completely uncharacteristic. They write about the "color revolution" starting in the United States, about the abrupt change of regime in Western Europe. World politics is gradually becoming unpredictable, filled with new, not yet happened events and phenomena that need to be understood.
The center of gravity of the entire world political system is clearly shifting. Asian countries are gaining strength; the share of China and India has risen extremely high. Therefore, the main intrigues of this tectonic shift in politics will unfold, most likely, in relations between China and the United States. The economic crisis that has swept the world is hard on the leading countries. The people of the United States are gripped by a general disillusionment with the policies of the ruling party. That is why the Republicans won such a convincing victory over the Democrats, got the majority of seats in the House of Representatives and increased their representation in the Senate.
Domestic and foreign policy
Trump's victory is important not so much for domestic politics as for foreign. Israel is already clearly encouraged, China is concerned, the rest of Asia is upset, and Russia is speculating. A much tougher stance towards China is very possible - weakening the yuan to the inability to hold its own currency. Support for the Afghan war is very possible. Republicans are also concerned about the deployment of the country's missile defense.
Congress received a significant increase in pro-Israeli forces: Illinois Senator Mark Kirk, leader of the majority of the lower house, Eric Cantor, Tel Aviv can now hope for a special political climate to allow the resumption of negotiations with the Palestinian Authority. At the same time, pro-Israeli forces feel strong pressure from the forces so far unknown (however, everyone guesses which ones): January 19, 2017, there were reports of mining of 28 Jewish centers in 17 US states, which, fortunately, was imaginary. But this is far from the first warning. And at some point, mining may not be false.
How will it end
It seems to many that America’s stable position in the world has been shaken, and world domination has already been practically lost. Is it so? The President of Russia and the diplomatic corps are very cautious in their assessments. And in fact, let us recall the year 2010, when Wikileaks opened and published many tens of thousands of documentary letters of the diplomatic mail of America. It seemed - well, that's the end of the state. But nothing happened to America. The allies, even in every possible way, were not lost. Enemies also remained in place, there were no new ones. One thing is surprising: it never occurred to anyone to blame Moscow for these revelations, as happened after Donald Trump won the election.
Yes, Trump is another. He is significantly different from the previous president. But what awaits Russia in connection with this choice, who knows? If you look from Moscow or some Skovorodin, the Republicans are seen by people as more pragmatic and less dangerous for us than the losing Democrats, who constantly petitioned the Russians small and large. How different is the Trump team from the team of the same Hillary Clinton? After a thoughtful analysis, it becomes clear that the actions of both parties take place on the same lithospheric platform. They are much more similar than seen from afar. Both that team and the other frightens the people with an external threat and paints a picture of various foreign intrigues. Freedom and democracy are respected by some, prestige and economy - by others, but this and that are also threatened by external forces, in any case the nation is in danger. Hillary did not like world populism and Russia, and Trump does not like transnational corporations, Mexico, China and developing countries. A tectonic shift in politics is inevitable. Perhaps that is why our diplomats are so cautious in their assessments and forecasts.