Scientists involved in the study of the social and economic development of states agreed that it takes place in waves (according to the Kondratiev theory of long waves), the level of growth is determined by the influence of many factors (cultural, political, social and others), and the driving force of development is the degree of information and technological progress. According to a number of sources, scientific and technological revolution (scientific technological revolution) occurs cyclically, while the cycles last about fifty years.
Theory of technological structures
There are five cycles. In the first wave (from 1785 to 1835), a technological order was formed, which was based on new achievements in the textile industry and the use of water energy. The second cycle (from 1830 to 1890) is associated with the development of the railway industry and transport, mechanical production using steam engines. In the third wave, a technological structure based on the use of electricity was formed. During this period (from 1880 to 1940), the development of the electrical industry and heavy engineering was noted. In the third wave, plastics, non-ferrous metals, airplanes, telegraphs, radio communications and other achievements were introduced. In addition, trusts, cartels, and large firms began to appear during this period of time. At the same time, the dominance of monopolies and oligopolies was noted on the market, and the accumulation of financial and banking capital began.
Fourth cycle
In the 4th wave, a technological order was formed, which was based on the subsequent development of the energy sector using petroleum products, oil, communications, gas, weapons, aircraft, tractors, and more. In this period from 1930 to 1990, there was a widespread distribution of computers and software, radars. They began to use the atom - for the military, and then for peaceful purposes. Multinational and transnational companies began to appear, which carried out direct investment in the markets in different countries. The fifth wave is characterized by an emphasis on advances in computer science, microelectronics, genetic engineering, biotechnology, satellite communications, and various types of energy. From fragmentation, companies are moving to the formation of a single network of large and small companies, the interaction between which is established using the Internet. This period (from 1985 to 2035) is characterized by planning, quality control, and organization of deliveries in accordance with the “on time” principle. It should be noted that the duration of individual waves is slightly more than fifty years. This is due to the coincidence of the decay time of the outgoing order with the period of progression of the new. Accelerating scientific and technical progress will contribute to a future reduction in wave duration.
Fifth wave. Elements and Benefits
The concept of technological structure of the present time includes several components. The core elements are considered the core, a key factor. The core is electronic industry, software, computer technology, telecommunications and other achievements of modern science. The key factor is microelectronic components. Compared with the previous (fourth) fifth technological mode, it is based on the individualization of consumption and production, the expansion of the variety of products, overcoming environmental restrictions due to automation of production and so on.