World news from time to time, talking about events in the poorest countries of the planet (Rwanda, Cambodia, Somalia), use the term "humanitarian disaster." The viewer's imagination paints a gloomy picture, supported by documentary shots from the scene. Naked children with bloated stomachs and ulcers on the skin, skinny adults, weak old men, helpless and exhausted lying directly on the ground ...
What is a humanitarian disaster and why is it happening
In addition to natural causes, such as drought or other natural disasters, there are other factors causing such dire consequences. Some people flashed on TV screens, most often dressed in camouflage, they wave machine guns and bazookas, chant belligerently and shoot at someone.
A humanitarian catastrophe is a phenomenon in the modern world most often associated with a civil war. Its main sign is the occurrence of a threat to the life of a significant part of the population of the region it covers. Most often, the situation looks like conflicts occur on ethnic or interfaith grounds, but upon careful study of circumstances, as a rule, it turns out that the main reason is the clash of economic interests, and the ethnic or religious factor is only an occasion skillfully used by invisible players.
War and Destruction
A humanitarian catastrophe is the result of the destruction of the basis on which the life of the state or part of it is built. The work of enterprises ceases, sowing or harvesting does not take place, the energy infrastructure is seriously disrupted, state authorities, health care and education systems cannot fully function. This happened in the besieged Leningrad. Similar phenomena occurred during the famine in the Volga region and in Ukraine. Interethnic armed strife in Yugoslavia, the Holocaust (the ethnic extermination of the Jewish population during the Second World War), the mass killings of Armenians in Sumgait, and many other sad events of the 20th century also fall under the term “humanitarian catastrophe”. Its symbol is the notorious “man with a gun”, a faithful companion of revolutions and upheavals.
More recently, it was difficult to assume that something like this could happen in Ukraine, a country, of course, not rich, but quite peaceful, in which a certain political balance was formed, and the majority of the population was alien to revolutionary sentiments.
What modern history teaches us
History teaches us first of all that does not teach anything. And secondly, it clearly demonstrates that long-term political stability serves as the key to prosperity or at least the well-being of any state. Examples of “color” revolutions, liberation wars, and the overthrow of “dictatorial-totalitarian” regimes in Iraq, Libya, and many other countries eloquently indicate that chaos and, as a consequence, economic stagnation arise in the country. A civil war in a newly democratic country can go on for years, and a humanitarian catastrophe will result. This does not at all concern the organizers of revolutions; they have other concerns.
The situation in Ukraine, despite the predominantly European appearance of its citizens, painfully resembles what is happening in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and Libya. Private paramilitary groups appeared, controlled by local oligarchs. Armed people consider themselves military and reserve the right to force themselves to establish orders that seem fair to them.
Ukraine on the Eastern Front
A humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine (so far only in its eastern part) has occurred for the same reasons that it always arises. A war has begun, which the current government calls the operation, moreover, anti-terrorism. When reporting on events, journalists, both Russian and Ukrainian, usually focus on the emotional side of the material, showing the bodies of the dead (including women, children and the elderly) or demonstrating the funeral of "heroic defenders of the unity of the country." Residents of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, fleeing from destroyed houses, become refugees, they find shelter in Russia or in other regions of Ukraine. The media are trying to hide the real scale of the disaster, as well as military losses. At the same time, the state, in addition to the lives claimed by the war, suffers huge material losses. It is likely that a humanitarian catastrophe will soon spread to the rest of the country, even in the case of the most favorable option for Kiev to end hostilities.
Crimea
If we ignore the indignant exclamations of the Ukrainian national patriots, we can only state the fact that the separation of the peninsula occurred for quite natural reasons. Centripetal moods were characteristic mainly of the ethnically Russian population during the entire period of independence of Ukraine. "Maidan" was a serious reason to think about the direction of movement of the whole country, and the presence of Russian troops ruled out the possibility of an "indicative flogging" of the rebellious.
Before the referendum, supporters of unity and indivisibility predicted an emergency humanitarian catastrophe in Crimea on the basis of many economic factors. It indicated the impending blockade of the peninsula, the inability to deliver food, its inability to provide itself with water, electricity and gas, the unprofitableness of the economy, expressed in traditional budget subsidies, and many other reasons why the indignant population of the autonomous region would soon be asked to return to Ukraine. That did not happen. The reason is the same - war. Rather, its presence in Ukraine and the absence in the Crimea. All the rest, of course, constitutes a problem, but a solution.
What's next?
If we consider the most optimistic scenario in Ukraine, then there is reason to believe that it appears to official Kiev consisting of the following points:
- Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics are liquidated, their defenders are expelled or destroyed.
- Help was received from the European Union and the USA, with the help of which it is possible to neutralize the consequences of hostilities and the reduction of trade with the Russian Federation.
- Western markets are open for Ukrainian goods, Europeans are happily lining up to buy them.
- Under pressure from the EU and the USA, Russia agrees to sell gas at a symbolic price.
- Under the same pressure, Crimea returns to where it was taken from. Sevastopol residents joyfully welcome the parade of the Ukrainian army.
- There will be no humanitarian catastrophe.
History will show which of these expectations will come true ...