The concept of a hypothesis (Greek ὑπόθεσις - "basis, assumption") is a scientific assumption, the truth of which has not yet been confirmed. The hypothesis can act as a method of developing scientific knowledge (advancing and experimental testing of assumptions), as well as an element of the structure of scientific theory. Creating a hypothetical system in the process of carrying out certain mental operations allows a person to make available for discussion and visible transformation the proposed device of certain objects. The forecasting process in relation to these objects takes on a more specific and justified character.
The history of the hypothesis method
The emergence of a hypothetical method occurs at an early stage in the development of ancient mathematical knowledge. In ancient Greece, mathematicians used the method of deductive thought experiment for mathematical proofs. This method consisted of putting forward a hypothesis with the subsequent derivation of the consequences from it using analytical deduction. The purpose of the method was to verify the initial scientific guesses and assumptions. Plato is developing his own analytical-synthetic method. At the first stage, the hypothesis put forward is subjected to preliminary analysis; at the second stage, it is necessary to draw a logical chain of conclusions in the reverse order. If this is possible, the initial assumption is considered confirmed.
While in ancient science, the hypothetical method is used more in a latent form, in the framework of other methods, at the end of the 17th century. the hypothesis is already being used as an independent method of scientific research. The hypothesis method received the greatest development and strengthening of its status within the framework of scientific knowledge in the works of F. Engels.
Hypothetical thinking in childhood
The procedure for formulating hypotheses is one of the most important stages in the development of thinking in childhood. About this, for example, writes the Swiss psychologist J. Piaget in his work “Speech and Thinking of the Child” (1923).
Examples of hypotheses for children can be found already at the initial stages of education in primary school age. So, children may be asked to answer the question of how the birds know the way to the south. In turn, children begin to make assumptions. Examples of hypotheses: “they follow those birds in the flock that have already flown south earlier”; “Guided by plants and trees”; “Feel the warm air”, etc. Initially, the thinking of a 6-8-year-old child is self-centered, in its conclusions, the child focuses primarily on a simple intuitive justification. In turn, the development of hypothetical thinking allows one to remove this contradiction, facilitating the child's search for evidence in substantiating one or another of his answers. In the future, when moving to high school, the process of generating hypotheses is significantly complicated and takes on a new specificity - a more abstract character, reliance on formulas, etc.
Actively tasks for the development of hypothetical thinking are used as part of the developmental education of children, built according to the DB system. Elkonina -
V.V. Davydova.However, regardless of the wording, the hypothesis is an assumption about the connections of two or more variables in a certain context and is an essential component of scientific theory.
Hypothesis in the system of scientific knowledge
A scientific theory cannot be formulated using direct inductive generalization of scientific experience. The hypothesis that explains the totality of certain facts or phenomena acts as an intermediate link. This is the most difficult stage in the system of scientific knowledge. The leading role here is played by intuition and logic. Reasoning by itself is not yet evidence in science - it is only a conclusion. Their truth can be judged only in the case of the truth of those premises on which they rely. The task of the researcher in this case is to choose from the set of empirical facts and empirical generalizations of the most important, as well as in an attempt to scientifically substantiate these facts.
In addition to the correspondence of the hypothesis to empirical data, it is also necessary that it meets such principles of scientific knowledge as rationality, profitability, and ease of thinking. The emergence of hypotheses is due to the uncertainty of the situation, the explanation of which is an urgent issue for scientific knowledge. There may also be conflicting judgments on an empirical level. In order to resolve this contradiction, it is necessary to put forward certain hypotheses.
The specifics of hypothesis construction
Due to the fact that the hypothesis is basically based on a certain assumption (prediction), it should be borne in mind that this is not reliable, but probable knowledge, the truth of which still needs to be proved. Moreover, it should cover all the facts related to this scientific field. As noted by R. Karnap, if a researcher suggests that the elephant is an excellent swimmer, then we are not talking about one particular elephant, which he could observe in one of the zoos. In this case, the English article is the (in the Aristotelian sense - the plural meaning), that is, we are talking about a whole class of elephants.
The hypothesis systematizes the existing facts, and also predicts the emergence of new ones. So, if we consider examples of hypotheses in science, we can distinguish the quantum hypothesis of M. Planck, put forward by him at the beginning of the twentieth century. This hypothesis, in turn, led to the discovery of areas such as quantum mechanics, quantum electrodynamics, etc.
The main properties of the hypothesis
Ultimately, any hypothesis must receive either confirmation or refutation. Thus, we are dealing with such properties of a scientific theory as verifiability and falsifiability.
The verification process is aimed at establishing the truth of this or that knowledge through their empirical verification, after which the research hypothesis is confirmed. An example is the atomistic theory of Democritus. One should also distinguish between assumptions that can be subjected to empirical verification and those that, in principle, are unverifiable. So, the statement: "Olya loves Vasya" - initially can not be verified, while the statement: "Olya says that she loves Vasya" - can be verified.
Verifiability can also be indirect in nature, when the conclusion is made on the basis of logical conclusions from directly verified facts.
The falsification process, in turn, is aimed at establishing the falsity of the hypothesis in the process of empirical verification. It is important to note that the results of testing a hypothesis alone cannot refute it - an alternative hypothesis is necessary for the further development of the studied field of knowledge. If there is no such hypothesis, the rejection of the first hypothesis is impossible.
Hypothesis in experiment
The assumptions put forward by the researcher for experimental confirmation are called experimental hypotheses. However, they are not necessarily based on theory. VN Druzhinin identifies three types of hypotheses in terms of their origin:
1. Theoretically substantiated - based on the theory (model of reality) and being predictions, consequences of these theories.
2. Scientific experimental - also confirm (or refute) certain models of reality, but not the theories already formulated are taken as the basis, but the intuitive assumptions of the researcher ("Why not? ..").
3. Empirical hypotheses formulated with respect to a particular case. Examples of hypotheses: “Click the cow on the nose, it will wave its tail” (Kozma Prutkov). After confirming the hypothesis during the experiment, it acquires the status of a fact.
Common to all experimental hypotheses is such a property as operationalizability, that is, the formulation of hypotheses in terms of specific experimental procedures. In this context, three types of hypotheses can also be distinguished:
- hypotheses about the presence of a particular phenomenon (type A);
- hypotheses about the presence of a connection between phenomena (type B);
- hypotheses about the presence of a causal relationship between phenomena (type B).
Examples of hypotheses of type A:
- Is there a “risk aversion" phenomenon (the term social psychology) in the process of group decision making?
- Is there life on Mars?
- Is transmission of thoughts possible at a distance?
Also here can be attributed the periodic system of chemical elements D.I. Mendeleev, on the basis of which the scientist predicted the existence of elements not yet discovered at that time. Thus, all hypotheses about facts and phenomena belong to this type.
Examples of hypotheses of type B:
- All external manifestations of brain activity can be reduced to muscle movements (I.M.Sechenov).
- Extroverts are more risk averse than introverts.
Accordingly, this type of hypothesis is characterized by certain connections between the phenomena.
Examples of hypotheses of type B:
- Centrifugal force balances the weight and reduces it to zero (K.E. Tsiolkovsky).
- The development of fine motor skills of a child contributes to the development of his intellectual abilities.
This type of hypothesis is based on independent and dependent variables, relations between them, as well as levels of additional variables.
Hypothesis, disposition, sanction
Examples of these concepts are considered within the framework of legal knowledge as elements of a legal norm. It should also be noted that the question of the structure of the rule of law in jurisprudence is an object of discussion for both domestic and foreign scientific thought.
The hypothesis in jurisprudence is part of the norm that determines the conditions for the operation of this norm on the facts under which it begins to function.
A hypothesis within the framework of law may express such aspects as the place / time of the occurrence of a particular event; the subject belongs to a certain state; terms of entry into force of a legal norm; the state of health of the subject, affecting the possibility of realizing this or that law, etc. An example of the hypothesis of the rule of law: “A child of unknown parents discovered on the territory of the Russian Federation becomes a citizen of the Russian Federation”. Accordingly, the place of the incident and the subject's belonging to a particular state are indicated. In this case, a simple hypothesis holds. In law, examples of such hypotheses are quite common. A simple hypothesis is based on one circumstance (fact) in which it takes effect. Also, the hypothesis can be complex when it comes to two or more circumstances. In addition, there is an alternative type of hypothesis, involving actions of a different nature, equivalent to each other by law for one reason or another.
The disposition is aimed at securing the rights and obligations of participants in legal relations, indicating their possible and proper behavior. Like the hypothesis, disposition can take a simple, complex, or alternative form. In a simple disposition, we are talking about one legal consequence; in complex - about two or more, occurring simultaneously or in combination; in an alternative disposition - about consequences of a different nature (“either-or”).
The sanction, in turn, is part of the norm, indicating coercive measures to ensure rights and obligations. In many cases, sanctions are aimed at specific types of legal liability. From the point of view of certainty, there are two types of sanctions: absolutely certain and relatively certain. In the first case, we are talking about legal consequences that do not provide any alternatives (recognition of invalidity, transfer of property rights, fines, etc.). In the second case, several solutions can be considered (for example, in the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation it can be a fine or imprisonment; the scope of the sentence - for example, from 5 to 10 years, etc.). Also, sanctions can be penal and legal.
Analysis of the structure of the rule of law
Accordingly, the structure “hypothesis - disposition - sanction” (examples of a legal norm) can be represented as follows: HYPOTHESIS (“if ..”) → DISPOSITION (“then ..”) → SANCTION (“otherwise ..”). However, in reality, simultaneously all three elements in the rule of law are quite rare. More often we deal with a binomial structure, which can be of two types:
1. Regulatory norms of law: hypothesis-disposition. In turn, they can be divided into binding, prohibiting and authorizing.
2. Protective norms of law: hypothesis-sanction. There can also be three types: absolutely definite, relatively definite and alternative (see classification of sanctions).
Moreover, the hypothesis does not have to be at the beginning of the rule of law. Compliance with a certain structure distinguishes a rule of law from an individual prescription (designed for a single action), as well as from general principles of law (not highlighting hypotheses and sanctions that govern relations without any particular certainty).
Consider examples of hypotheses, dispositions, sanctions in articles. Regulatory norms of law: “Able-bodied children over 18 years of age must take care of disabled parents” (Constitution of the Russian Federation, part 3, art. 38). The first part of the norm regarding able-bodied children over 18 years old is a hypothesis. She, as befits a hypothesis, indicates the conditions of the norm - the order of its entry into force. An indication of the need to take care of disabled parents is a disposition that reinforces a specific obligation. Thus, the elements of a legal norm in this case are hypothesis and disposition - an example of a binding norm.
“The contractor who improperly performed the work does not have the right to refer to the fact that the customer did not monitor and supervise their implementation, except ...” (Civil Code of the Russian Federation, part 4, article 748). These are examples of the hypothesis and disposition of the prohibition norm.
Protective norms of law: “Parents are responsible for harm caused by a minor under the age of 14 ...” (Civil Code of the Russian Federation, part 1, article 1073). This is a structure: a hypothesis-sanction, an example of an absolutely defined legal norm. This species is the only exact condition (harm caused by a minor) in combination with the only exact sanction (parental responsibility). Hypotheses in protective legal norms indicate violations.
An example of an alternative legal norm: “Fraud committed by a group of persons in a preliminary conspiracy ... shall be punishable by a fine of up to 300 thousand rubles, or in the amount of the wage or other income of the convicted person for a period of up to 2 years, or by compulsory labor for a term of up to 480 hours .. . ”(Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, Art. 159 para. 2); “Fraud committed by a person using his official position ... shall be punishable by a fine in the amount of 100 thousand to 500 thousand rubles” (Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, Art. 159 p. 3). Accordingly, the facts of fraud in question are examples of scientific hypotheses, and those or other alternatives to liability for these crimes are examples of sanctions.
The hypothesis in the framework of psychological research
If we are talking about psychological scientific research, based on the methods of mathematical statistics, then the hypothesis in this case should correspond primarily to such requirements as clarity and conciseness. As E.V. notes Sidorenko, thanks to these hypotheses, the researcher in the course of calculations, in fact, gets a clear picture of what he established.
It is customary to single out null and alternative statistical hypotheses. In the first case, we are talking about the absence of differences in the studied characteristics, according to the formula X 1 -X 2 = 0. In turn, X 1 , X 2 are the values of the attributes by which the comparison is carried out. Accordingly, if the goal of our study is to prove the statistical significance of the differences between the values of the attributes, then we want to refute the null hypothesis.
In the case of the alternative hypothesis, the statistical significance of the differences is affirmed. Thus, an alternative hypothesis is the statement that we seek to prove. It is also called the experimental hypothesis. It should be noted that in some cases, the researcher, on the contrary, may seek to prove the null hypothesis, if this is consistent with the objectives of his experiment.
The following examples of hypotheses in psychology can be given:
The null hypothesis ( 0 ): The tendency of an increase (decrease) in a trait during the transition from one sample to another is random.
Alternative hypothesis (H 1 ): The tendency of an increase (decrease) in a characteristic when moving from one sample to another is not random.
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