Political analysis and forecasting (foresight) are research of a scientific nature, applied to processes and phenomena in politics. Through the study, specific prospects in the development of events in this area are determined. For the most accurate assessment of the chances of success and likely behavioral strategies, the applied political forecasting should be based on the analytical aspects of the methodology.
The main task of foresight is the ability to predict the course of an event with a high level of probability. It should be noted that in all activities it is possible to observe a discrepancy between the results and the original intentions. However, according to experts, it is in politics that this phenomenon (inconsistency) is equated to a natural one. It is in this area that there is a frequent and very distant discrepancy between the planned goals and the result of their implementation.
Politics is characterized by the emergence of many processes that are characterized by instability, instability. Even minor or accidental events (the death of a politician, a leak of information, etc.) can provoke a profound political upheaval. This is one of the reasons that often what is expected and planned does not become the basis of confident foresight, but rather often results in unexpected processes. Moreover, scientific foresight includes determinism (limitation) as an inevitable result of rational development models . Political forecasting, in turn, reduces it (determinism) to a property that only occasionally manifests itself.
Features of foresight (in politics) contribute to the continuous expansion of the methodological base of research. At the same time, analysts are beginning to take into account a variety of unconventional approaches, collective and individual experience of behavior, intuition. There are historical analogies, and momentary expectations. Thus, political forecasting moves into a methodology of a special influence on reality. Impact on political reality is carried out to form the desired changes in it. There are several foresight options.
The main methods of political forecasting
The most common option for foresight is extrapolation. Political forecasting in this case is a continuation into the future of this or that process at a mental level. The use of this option of foresight is based on the presence of a trajectory of movement and time length in most phenomena. Thus, a chain is built of present and past events. The application of this method allows us to study not so much the events themselves as the potential trajectory of their development.
Political forecasting often uses the analogy method. In this case, analysts rely on the similarity of conditions that provoked the development of certain events in the past. Thus, the conclusion is the likelihood of a repetition of the same process in the future under similar conditions. However, the application of this method is hampered by insufficient consideration of the subjective factor - qualitative changes in political actors. In this regard, a situation may arise when similar conditions have found themselves, but the alleged events did not occur.
The scenario method used in political foresight is a description of future events in the world as a whole or in a specific region. At the same time, analysts take into account various factors, including the researcher’s own attitude to the event being studied.
There is also a method of expert assessment in political forecasting . In this case, the basis of the hypotheses is the result of the work of a group of specialists whose experience and knowledge in the field of foresight are universally recognized.
The modeling method is very useful in forecasting in politics . In this case, knowledge about the future process is formed by a conditionally created image of the proposed object. It (the image of the object) can be embodied in a map, diagram, graph, formula, etc. Thus, the simulation of the predicted phenomenon is carried out.