Although there is no subjunctive mood in history, researchers and ordinary people still ask themselves if World War II could have been avoided. To answer this question, you need to look at the causes of the largest armed conflict in human history.
Appeasement of the aggressor
In 1933, the Nazis came to power in Germany, led by Adolf Hitler. The radicals advocated a review of the results of the First World War, as a result of which their country was deprived of a significant part of its territory and was left without an army. Simultaneously with Hitler, a similar totalitarian state was built in Italy by Benito Mussolini.
On the eve of World War II, the FĂĽhrer began the first steps in the annexation of the territories of neighboring states. On the one hand, he sought to annex fraternal Austria, and on the other, to take away the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia, the majority of whose population consisted of ethnic Germans.
Western leaders looked through their fingers at Hitler’s aggressive rhetoric. But could the Second World War be avoided? Today it is believed that its beginning was pushed by the "policy of appeasement of the aggressor", which was conducted in Paris and London. Both Great Britain and France (as the victorious countries in the First World War and the main guarantors of the Versailles Peace Treaty) could put pressure on the Fuhrer until he managed to create a powerful army, but did not. Why did it happen so? One of the most important reasons for connivance towards Hitler was the fear of the Western capitalist countries of communism and the USSR.
The hostility of democracies to Stalin
Since that year, when the Bolsheviks came to power in Russia, Europe has become the goal of their “world revolution”. The Civil War never developed into a triumphal campaign of the proletariat in the Old World (it was choked back in Poland). However, all of the 20s and 30s. Soviet power invested heavily in propagating leftist ideas abroad. To help the world revolution, a new international was created.
For all of the above reasons, Western Europe regarded the USSR as a direct threat to its existence. Even the official diplomatic relations with the Bolsheviks, the rich capitalist countries began to start only in the 1930s. The emergence of the Nazi threat could theoretically lead to the convergence of the two irreconcilable systems, but this did not happen.
After the death of Lenin, power in the USSR gradually concentrated in the hands of Stalin. It was he who determined the entire foreign and politics of the country, although in the Soviet Union there was no formal post of head of state. In the second half of the 1930s. Stalin initiated mass repression. Everyone fell under them: from the old Bolsheviks to the army and ordinary people. The Great Terror averted Western leaders even further from Moscow. Could World War II have been avoided? Even if so, it was not in the case when European politicians preferred an alliance with Stalin to pacify Hitler.
Munich agreement
Western diplomats reached the highest point of a policy of flirting with the Fuhrer on September 30, 1938. On this day, the shameful Munich Agreement was signed , according to which the Sudetenland belonging to Czechoslovakia passed to Germany. It was signed by Hitler, Mussolini, British Prime Minister Chamberlain and French Prime Minister Daladier.
Czechoslovakia was forced to accept the new order of things in an ultimatum form. The USSR, which participated in a pact of mutual assistance with this country and France, was generally ignored. Stalin with his opinion was on the sidelines of international politics. Much later, Europe after the Second World War reluctantly recalled the Munich Agreement, a year later entailing the start of a devastating armed conflict.
For Stalin, the decision on Czechoslovakia without his participation became a personal humiliation. The Munich events intensified the fears of the leader of the peoples about the conspiracy of fascists and democracies, which could result in a turn of German aggression to the east. At the same time, Stalin could not react to what had happened from the standpoint of his own strength. In September 1938, the Red Army was strengthened on the western borders of the country, but European politicians hardly paid attention to this demonstrative gesture. In October, reverse demobilization took place, and the Soviet government began to look for diplomatic ways to get out of isolation. In the Kremlin, it was decided to drive a wedge between the Fuhrer and Western democracies.
Period of confusion
Before Stalin and Hitler became close, the Soviet leader made several demarches, condemning France and Great Britain and, conversely, inviting Germany to a dialogue. Such was the speech at the XVIII Party Congress in March 1939. Stalin said that he would not wear chestnuts from the fire for Western politicians and called them provocateurs who tried to quarrel Berlin and Moscow. Just a few days after this speech, Hitler completely occupied Czechoslovakia. It became clear even to optimists that this was a new major war. Under these conditions, the opinion of Stalin, who was the “third force,” turned out to be increasingly important.
Throughout the spring and summer of 1939, European diplomats tried to come to an agreement. Nobody trusted anyone, and behind-the-scenes agreements could fall apart the very next day. In this intricacy of negotiations, politicians tried to understand whether World War II could have been avoided. It turned out that no.
For example, the negotiations of the USSR with France and Great Britain were not asked from the very beginning. The People's Commissar for Foreign Affairs Maxim Litvinov led them, linking his own reputation with the success of rallying anti-Nazi forces with the participation of the Soviet Union. In May 1939, the head of the USSR dismissed him. It was a demonstrative step. He predetermined the future rapprochement, which went to Stalin and Hitler. Molotov became People's Commissar for Foreign Affairs, and this, no doubt, was a friendly gesture towards Germany. With the help of personnel castling, Stalin completely concentrated foreign policy in his hands. It was much easier for him to work through Molotov than through Litvinov, who rarely visited the leader’s Kremlin office.
Nonaggression pact
The crown of Soviet-German rapprochement was the Molotov-Ribbentrop Treaty. It is well known that the initiator of the signing of this document was Hitler. Forcing events, he proposed to Moscow his last argument. The FĂĽhrer decided that an imminent invasion of Poland could not do without friendship with the Soviet leader. On August 21, Hitler sent Stalin a personal letter in which, with an extremely transparent hint, he announced an imminent war and offered to sign a non-aggression pact.
It was about a matter of days. On August 23, German Foreign Minister Joachim von Ribbentrop arrived in Moscow . Stalin and Molotov politely met him, after which a non-aggression pact was drawn up between the USSR and Germany. Both sides got what they wanted so much. At the insistence of Stalin, a secret protocol was also prepared. He entered into the Molotov-Ribbentrop Treaty.
According to this document, the USSR and Germany divided Eastern Europe among themselves. The zone of Soviet interests included part of Poland (Western Belarus and Western Ukraine), the Baltic states, Finland, and Bessarabia. Stalin wanted the growth of territories and the restoration of the borders of the former Russian Empire. Hitler needed confidence in the security of his borders during the war with Poland and the rest of Europe. The non-aggression pact of the USSR and Germany satisfied the wishes of the two leaders.
Mistakes of pragmatists
Future events of the Second World War showed that Nazism is one of the worst crimes in the history of mankind. However, in 1939, both Stalin and democratic politicians behaved with Hitler according to flexible approaches. Western diplomats justified the pacification of the Fuhrer with wording similar to the famous “if only there was no war”. Agreements with him were not unacceptable, the whole question was only in their nature. Acting according to a pragmatic policy, Stalin in a certain sense did not differ from those who signed the Munich Agreement.
However, there was a difference. Western diplomats only averted the blow from their own countries (thereby allowing Hitler to tear to pieces several small states in turn). Stalin did not stop at this “permissible” line. He himself decided to take part in the division of territories. That is why many countries in World War II initially treated the Soviet Union as an ally of Germany.
Stalin untied the Fuhrer’s hands for a march to the west, believing that France and Great Britain themselves were pushing the Third Reich’s aggression eastward. But even if the Soviet leader acted on the basis of the interests of the USSR, it was he who still gave Hitler the last trump card to start the Second World War. Consequently (considering also the Munich Agreement), all three sides of the “big game” allowed a long-term bloody meat grinder to happen. The pact of the USSR and Germany was a key, but not the only step towards a terrible tragedy.
The start and end dates of World War II (September 1, 1939 and September 1, 1945) are key marks in the history of the 20th century. Hardly anyone on the eve of the armed confrontation assumed that the struggle would result in such a huge number of casualties and destruction. In the same way, diplomats argued at one time, which allowed the First World War to happen.
Consequences and legacy of the pact
Speaking about the motives of Stalin’s actions in his relationship with Hitler, one cannot fail to mention the Japanese factor. Armed clashes with the eastern neighbor of the USSR began in the spring of 1939. At first, the events in Mongolia were unsuccessful for the Red Army. But in the summer the situation began to change. In August, when the Soviet-German agreement was signed in Moscow, the Kremlin’s position in dialogue with Berlin was significantly strengthened.
The pact was a diplomatic defeat for Japan. Now she could not count on the help of her ally Germany in the struggle against the USSR. The prevailing ratio affected the entire course of what will soon be called the “Second World War”. The reasons, stages, results of this conflict cannot be considered without taking into account Japanese events. On the eve of the attack on Pearl Harbor in Tokyo, they were seriously arguing about who to attack: the USSR or the USA. The choice was made in favor of the American scenario, which saved the Soviet Union from a war on two fronts.
For Stalin, the signing of a non-aggression pact was a tactical victory. Having concluded the contract, he postponed the clash with the largest potential enemy and returned part of the territories lost during the collapse of the Russian Empire. The idea of ​​“historical justice” associated with the annexation of the once breakaway regions met with understanding and sympathy among many Soviet citizens and even partly in the West. The Soviet leader had the prospect of balancing between Germany and the powers of the Old World at war with it.
The secret protocol on dividing Eastern Europe into spheres of influence, of course, cast a shadow on the reputation of the USSR. However, when the question arose of the possibility of war with Germany, Stalin was not worried about this. On the other hand, the unpleasant inheritance was left to the next owners of the Kremlin. For several decades, the Soviet authorities refused to acknowledge the existence of a secret protocol. All copies appearing in the Western press were called fakes and provocations. The historical truth was restored only in the era of Perestroika, when the Soviet Union finally recognized the unpleasant details about the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact as the truth.
Division of Poland
After signing the non-aggression pact with the Soviet Union, Hitler could begin direct combat operations in Europe. The events of World War II began on September 1, 1939 , when the Third Reich attacked Poland. Its allies, France and Great Britain, opposed Germany, but in fact were in no hurry to enter into a bloody conflict.
Slowed and Stalin. The partition of Poland on paper has already taken place. But the entry of Soviet troops into this country began only on September 17, when it was already clear how the German aggression would end. Stalin did not want to look like a second interventionist. Therefore, the official position of the USSR proceeded from the fact that the Red Army regains the territory of Western Belarus and Western Ukraine, selected by Poland in 1921.
The real situation was different from propaganda. The USSR spoke on behalf of the Belarusian and Ukrainian peoples, but the inclusion of new territories in the Union did not look like a reunion of divided fraternal peoples. The regions occupied by the Red Army survived the rapid Sovietization, accompanied by coercion and repression. Bringing these territories to socialist standards, the Kremlin destroyed the centers of dissent, liquidated the capitalist system and organized mass purges.
New contract
When Poland came under the complete control of the Red Army and the Wehrmacht, a new treaty of friendship and border between the USSR and Germany was adopted. The official signing ceremony took place on September 28, 1939.
The first protocol regulated the exchange of German and Soviet citizens living in different parts of divided Polish territory. Two other secret agreements adjusted the areas of interest of the states defined by the August Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. The friendship and border treaty between the USSR and Germany was its logical continuation. In the summer, the Soviet zone of interests in the Baltic states included Estonia and Latvia. Now Lithuania was also attached to it. This country became a “compensation” for the Lublin and part of the Warsaw Voivodeship, which was occupied by German troops (although these territories were supposed to go to the USSR).
After some time, an agreement appeared on the friendship and border treaty. It was signed in January 1941. The annex stipulated the Soviet-German border near the Baltic Sea, as well as the procedure for the relocation of Germans from the Baltic Soviet republics to their native Germany. The supplement included provisions on the settlement of issues related to property disputes. Meanwhile, the Second World War continued in Europe. The main confrontation unfolded between Germany and France (the Third Reich unexpectedly quickly defeated the Third Republic).
Quarrel between two dictators
Relations between Stalin and Hitler developed according to the political situation that prevailed in Europe on the eve and in the first two years of World War II. In the Kremlin, the Soviet leader did not deny the possibility of an armed conflict with Germany. However, he proceeded from the fact that the war can be delayed for at least a few more years or even be avoided. Hitler adopted the master plan for the attack on the USSR in the second half of 1940.
The Soviet Union by that time completed the annexation of areas bordering the zone of influence of Germany. After the western regions of Belarus and Ukraine, it was the turn of the Baltic states. Independent Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania appeared after the collapse of the Russian Empire. These states had small armed forces and could not seriously confront the Red Army, as a result of which there was no open organized resistance to accession. The power in the Baltic countries as a result of behind-the-scenes negotiations between local authorities and Molotov turned out to be transferred to the communist parties. Those, in turn, asked Moscow to join the Soviet Union.
In the summer of 1940, Romania bloodlessly gave the USSR to Moldova. Monarch Karol II did not shed blood and agreed to Stalin's ultimatum. However, even before this success, a terrible failure hit the Kremlin. Under an agreement with Germany, Finland also entered the zone of interests of the USSR. This country refused to accept Stalin's ultimatum. In November 1939, the Winter War began (it lasted three and a half months). The Red Army suffered huge losses. Finland defended independence (although it did surrender some of the border regions of Karelia).
The fiasco of Stalin even more convinced Hitler of the inability of the Soviet Union to show serious resistance to the Wehrmacht. A few months after the end of the Winter War in Berlin, the Barbarossa plan was adopted. By this time, Germany had occupied all of the opposing continental Europe. Having achieved what he wanted in the west, Hitler set his sights on the east. Before the attack on the Soviet Union, he occupied the Balkans and made Romania and Bulgaria, countries that were within the sphere of influence of the USSR, his allies. Step by step, the war with Germany was approaching, but Stalin refused to believe in its imminent beginning. He did not change himself even after Hitler ignored his reminders of new diplomatic negotiations and his own intelligence reports on the accumulation of armed forces on the border. The result of this stubbornness was the great losses and large-scale retreat of the Red Army in the first months of World War II, which began on June 22, 1941.