What is a scripting method? Note that with its help it is possible to assess the likely course of development of certain events, as well as provide for the consequences of decisions made. For example, one can predict the feasibility of opening a children's entertainment center, calculate profits, and foresee possible losses.
The value of technology
The scenario method is widely used in the activities of forecasting centers. Specialists who create options for the development of a particular situation, identify with one level or another level of reliability the final results. They are looking for a relationship with existing factors, form a picture, try to choose those options that will help eliminate the cause of the problem. For example, we can assume the effectiveness of creating a beauty salon in a small city, and for this you should get acquainted with the prices of services, offers of competitors, etc.
Specific features
If the scenario method is used by specialists, in this case a clear and complete development of the situation can be made, and various options for managing it can be identified.
Using the scenario method provides an opportunity for timely search and awareness of the identified dangers that can adversely affect the development of events, lead to unsuccessful management actions. For example, some people, before starting their own business, calculate competition for business in order to avoid bankruptcy.
Appearance story
There is a version that the script method was first used by Hermann Kahn. Kahn compared and evaluated various scenarios for the development of a specific situation, tried to find the only correct way to resolve the problem. At first, the scenario analysis method was only descriptive, then it began to be actively used in the preparation of quantitative and qualitative models of the situation. Today, without a preliminary miscalculation, not a single new enterprise is opened.
Application efficiency
The scenario development method is associated with the creation of project development technologies that will provide the most effective solution in specific situations. If possible, such a technology should minimize losses during the development of events in the worst case scenario.
Implementation methods
Currently, the risk scenario method exists in several interpretations:
- obtaining an agreed opinion;
- application of interaction matrices;
- repetition of independent scripts.
Coordination of expert opinion
Experts consider the scenario method by obtaining a consensus opinion one of the varieties of the Delphi technique. It is based on obtaining a unified opinion of different groups of experienced experts regarding some important event in a certain area for the long term.
This method has certain disadvantages. First of all, among its minuses we name insufficient attention to the interconnection and interaction of various factors that affect the dynamics of the situation, the change in the course of events.
Scenario repetition
The use of the scenario method involves the preparation of independent scenarios on individual aspects by different experts. This process is repeated after a certain time period. Then, the most acceptable options are agreed upon, and all possible negative consequences are studied during their implementation in practice.
Among the main advantages of this approach, an in-depth analysis of the interaction of various aspects of the formation of the situation can be noted. Experts consider its main shortcomings as insufficient security and incomplete methodological elaboration of the procedure for the coordination of various scenarios.
Gordon and Helmer developed their own scripting method. Their technique is now called the interaction matrix method. Its essence lies in the fact that the potential relationship of events is determined taking into account all expert assessments. Thanks to the analysis of the situation carried out by experts, linking all the acceptable variants of the combination of events according to their strength, change in time, it is possible to clarify the initial opinion on the probability of the occurrence of the event, to search for optimal combinations for a positive resolution of the problem.
The disadvantage of this approach is the complexity in obtaining a huge number of estimates and the procedure for their processing and adjustment.
Features of the calculations
It is possible to calculate the likely directions of the development of the system using mathematical formulas. In the absence of managerial influences, it is assumed that the process of system evolution will occur in the most probable direction.
Management influences are proportional to the actions of forces that are able to change the direction of the development trajectory. Of course, it is important to consider them with the obligatory consideration of certain restrictions that are imposed by both external and internal factors.
Such a scenario development technology allows determining the state of the analyzed system in discrete time intervals.
Management influences contribute to a shift in the state of the system in space, cause deviations from the planned version of the development of the situation. As a result of such a deviation, an additional search becomes necessary.
In some cases, control actions are aimed at maintaining stability, protecting against the development of the scenario in a negative way.
The results of the application of the technique
Among the most important results of applying this method of scenarios, experts note the maximum awareness of the situation in question, as well as the specific features of its subsequent development.
Among the latest interesting proposals related to this technique, we single out scenario forecasts.
Before proceeding to the direct creation of the scenario, the methodology involves conducting a full-fledged analysis of the situation, determining the main actors, searching for relationships between the main factors, and also performing the necessary detailing and structuring of events.
In this method, the selection of variables is done by experts. The key task set before them is to obtain a set of essential variables, which would be quite sufficient for a full consideration of the analyzed situation.
The next step is the determination of the appropriate scale for each of the selected variables. Only within the framework of the introduced restrictions will the measurements be considered. Due to the fact that in specific situations, in addition to quantitative variables, it is also proposed to develop a verbal-numerical scale, which has numerical indicators, the task of experts is clearly complicated.
With a meaningful description, you can significantly expand the number of variables, include those that will help reflect the nature of the situation.
In the case of using continuous variables, it is advisable to highlight certain values that will help to conduct a full analysis of the situation. In some cases, information about variables can be represented as a thesaurus (list), reflecting the basic information in the form of a descriptive quantitative assessment.
Conclusion
The main objective of the scripting method is to find the key to understanding a specific problem. In the case of analyzing a specific situation, it is important to use all the optimal scenarios that allow resolving the contradictions, finding the right option for the development of subsequent events.
In some cases, the scenario includes the background of the formation of the analyzed situation.
A distinctive feature of the methodology under consideration is multivariance, the ability to consider several alternative types of development of the situation at once, taking into account basic scenarios.
When grouping scenarios into classes, they determine a rational strategy for acting on a specific situation. Most of the scenarios are informative, which significantly increases the chances of an effective solution to the problem. Thanks to the use of modern computer equipment, the scripting method can be used with maximum efficiency and effectiveness.
Recently, the scripting method (example and types were considered above) is gaining more and more popularity.