The demographic situation in Russia is quite complicated in modern conditions . If we compare the countries in terms of population, the Russian Federation, of course, is far from last. However, this does not mean that there are no problems. Let us further consider what is a natural population decline.
The concept
If in Russia at the moment, even with the existing number of births, one would die per 1,000 people. as much as in Western European countries, the demographic situation would be much better. Natural population decline is one of the most pressing problems in the country today. It arises as a result of the excess of mortality over fertility.
According to statisticians, if the number of dead today remained at the level of the 80s. of the last century with the current birth rate, the position of our country in terms of population would be much higher. It should be emphasized that this is not about reproduction, shaping future dynamics. It is determined by indicators of total fertility and mortality. Their difference, in turn, reflects the coefficient of natural increase / decrease in the population .
Statistics
I must say that the low level of reproduction for the state is no less dangerous than the natural decline in the population. This is confirmed by statistical data. In the previous 13 years, 20.4 million people died in Russia, and from 1992 to 2004 - 28.2 million. The contribution of increasing the share of mortality was four times higher than the decrease in fertility. Despite the fact that different indicators of Rosstat have different indicators, it is quite possible to analyze the general trends of depopulation using them.
The first year in recent history, in which a natural population decline was recorded , is 1992. Since the next, 1993, its rate has been below 750 thousand people. did not fall. In 1994, for the first time in the post-war period, mortality exceeded 2.3 million people. Accordingly, the natural population decline has also increased . This was not an instant surge. A new negative trend has appeared. This is confirmed by statistical figures: from 1993 to 1996 it amounted to more than 3250 thousand people, and in the following years it increased to 3350 thousand people. In the 21st century (from 2001 to 2004), the figure exceeded 3,550 thousand people.
Compensating process
The reduction in population to one degree or another was offset by the influx of migrants. In 1994, their number amounted to 846 thousand people. Due to this, 95% of the natural loss was recovered. Moreover, the analysis of information for all other years indicates a systematic decrease in the compensatory role of the migration process. On the whole, over 13 years of the depopulation situation, about 35.2% (3.6 million people) were reimbursed. In 1992-1996, the country received through migration more than 2325 thousand people, and from 2001 to 2004 - only 282 thousand. Currently, migration processes, in fact, do not compensate for the increasing natural decline.
Causes
Specialists attribute the reduction in the number of migrants to the reduction in the states of the post-Soviet space of the so-called migration potential. Throughout the 90s. people from neighboring countries came to Russia continuously. At the same time, Russians prevailed among them. To a lesser extent, the number of visitors was immigrants from Kazakhstan, the Caucasus, Wed. Of Asia. In general, about 370 people returned to all the countries of the near abroad for 1 thousand Russians who arrived in 1989-2003, about Russia.
Most of the country went to Belarus, least of all - to Azerbaijan. Due to the influx, the number of Russians decreased not by 7, but only by 4 million people. According to the 2002 census, about 1.5 million people increased additionally due to a change in the part of Belarusians and Ukrainians of their nationality.
Meanwhile, experts as the main reason for reducing the flow of people from neighboring countries do not call the reduction in the scale of potential, but the change of migration attitudes of those who during the first few years after the collapse of the Union could not return to their historical homeland. This, in turn, was influenced by the policy pursued by the Russian authorities.
The country's leadership, in particular, was not able to take advantage of favorable conditions. Due to the discrimination expressed in the adoption of laws on language, citizenship, suffrage, etc., in some states the Russian-speaking population was ready to return to the country. However, citizens met obstacles created by the authorities on their way. Accordingly, all their impulses to return back to Russia quickly went out.
Comparison with other states
In the postwar years, France, despite no less difficulties in the economic sphere, was able to repatriate from the North. Africa is about 1.5-2 million people, that is, almost all compatriots. Germany returned about 10-12 million people, Japan - 4.5 million. This allowed countries to increase the population by 5-6%. The post-war situation in these states indicates tremendous economic and political gains. Finding himself in a similar situation, Russia almost until the end of the 90s. pursued a policy contrary to her national interests. This is indicated primarily by the adoption immediately after independence of the law on citizenship. This normative act set a number of obstacles for people who returned to Russia after 1992.
Crucial moment
It is worth mentioning, however, that until 1999, even with a natural decline, migration flows restrained a decrease in the number of people in Russia. From 1992 to 1998 the indicator was 279 thousand people / year (total value - 1950 thousand people). In the next 6 years, the reduction was already impressive - 4785 thousand people. Thus, during the depopulation period, the number of citizens decreased by 4.9-6.8 million people.
conclusions
Unlike other developed countries, depopulation in Russia has a number of features. What explains the natural population decline ? In Russia, the decline in the birth rate to such an extent that descendants are able to replace only 3/5 of the parental generation is supplemented by increased mortality. The latter, in turn, reduces life expectancy by 12-15 years, in comparison with other states. This led to the neighboring ratings in countries such as Vietnam, Guatemala, Honduras, Egypt, etc. In Europe there is no state in which the life expectancy of people would be less than in Russia.
Conclusion
I must say that natural decline is not something new for the world community. Even at the turn of the 19-20 centuries. France was in a state of depopulation. In the second half of the 20th century, some European states faced this situation. In the early 70's. against the background of quite favorable development conditions in the post-war period, for the first time, the number of deaths exceeded the number of births. This situation persists at the present time.
Natural decline has been observed since 1975 in Austria. Over the next two decades, there has been a negligible increase in the number of people (1 person per 1 thousand). A similar situation was in Belgium and Italy, and in the 90s. - in Sweden, Spain, Greece. In the second half of the 80s. natural decline was noted in the Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, and some other countries of Eastern Europe.
From 1999 to 2004 in Russia, the number of deaths annually higher than those born is 800-950 thousand people. Moreover, the total number is reduced annually by 750-900 thousand. The situation is complicated by the fact that migration has lost its compensatory role. This means that the pace of population decline in Russia is determined solely by natural decline. Thus, we can state that the state is in the deepest demographic crisis.