Recently, in the media there are very often words that are not entirely understandable for a person without financial education and not knowledgeable in the economy. This is how a dual-currency basket belongs.
This concept was introduced by the Central Bank in 2005. Let's try to figure out what a dual-currency basket is and where it can be used. Earlier, the US dollar was the guideline of the exchange rate policy for the country's main banking institution, but from February 1, 2005, the euro appeared, and its share from 0.1 to 2007 increased to 0.45. The currency basket formed in this way allows the Central Bank to flexibly approach the issue of fluctuations in the exchange rate and peculiarly regulate the fluctuations of the ruble exchange rate.
The dual-currency basket is a guideline for determining the real exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar and the euro. At the present stage, it is formed from 55% of dollars 45% of euros.
For a long time, the country kept the exchange rate at 30 rubles, but in 2008 there was some expansion of the currency corridor and the rate began to fluctuate from 26 rubles. up to 41 rub. With long-term retention of the basket at the level of 30 rubles. considerable expenses of the country's foreign exchange reserves were traced. Because of this, the Central Bank decided on a soft devaluation of the ruble, which led to an increase in the price of the ruble in the dual-currency basket. This event allowed to slightly save the country's foreign exchange reserves, however, there was a speculative need for foreign currency, both among the population and banking institutions.
Dual-currency basket pricing is influenced by market factors and indicators, and is also directly dependent on the policy of the Central Bank. A strong influence on the ruble exchange rate against foreign currency (dollar and euro), and as a result, the price of this type of basket, is constantly exerted by world prices for oil and raw materials.
If we analyze the dynamics, the dual-currency basket with its price undergoes significant fluctuations. So, for example, in August 2008 the minimum ruble exchange rate was 29.27 rubles, and by February 2009 the world economic crisis had already begun and the exchange rate had grown significantly and amounted to 40.93 rubles.
As for 2012, things are more positive here. So, on July 3 of this year foreign exchange trading ended with a depreciation of the euro and the dollar against the ruble. The dollar saw a depreciation of 45 kopecks (32.15 rubles) compared with the previous close, while the euro fell by 46 kopecks. (was - 41 rubles., became - 40.54 rubles.)
As a consequence of the above, the dual-currency basket at a price decreased to 35.9255 rubles. (by 40 kopecks in comparison with the previous period)
As already indicated, its price directly depends on the cost of oil. In this case, there is a decrease in this value and its restoration to the level of $ 100 per barrel. As prominent economists predict, it is possible that the price of a dual-currency basket may drop to 35 rubles. at the current - 36.0 rubles.
Since during July 2012 the Central Bank’s foreign exchange interventions were systematic, the volume of purchases averages up to $ 200 million daily. This may slightly, but still contribute to the strengthening of the ruble.
When the cost of oil is set above $ 100 per barrel, the ruble can continue to strengthen. At the same time, the dual-currency basket will decrease in price, but the Central Bank should not impede this, since foreign currency is sold in sufficient volumes (perhaps this phenomenon is seasonal and is associated with the holiday time).
However, the strengthening of the ruble today may turn into a strong fall for the country in the future. If the price of oil continues to grow, then the movement to the upper border of the basket will increase, and today this distance is small.
In the absence of the promised disruption of oil supplies from the Middle East, the dual-currency basket will reach its price of 38.15 rubles, and possibly even higher.