The modern development of economic and mathematical methods of analysis allows us to reliably evaluate forecasted and interpolated models of dynamic processes and to clarify the concept of tax and collection for a transformational economy. It is no accident that modern econometrics is used as a tool to confirm or refute certain theoretical principles.
In world economic thought, many concepts have been put forward related to the dynamics of taxes and tax effects, clarifying and supplementing what constitutes the concept of tax and its truth in various models of the economy. In line with neoclassical economic theory in the 70s. XX century there was a theory of supply. Its supporters, mainly American scientists, take the Laffer effect for truth, considering tax cuts necessary. Representatives of the theory of proposals see among the main reasons for unpredictable inflation high tax rates and tight deadlines for paying taxes and fees.
Is the rise in prices in the Russian economy related to the tax rate? To answer this question, one can imagine all direct, and then indirect tax revenues as some average tax rates multiplied by GDP, using economic and mathematical methods of analysis.
When establishing a correlation between the indicated rates and the consumer price index (CPI), it turned out that direct taxes have a direct effect on inflation, there is practically no lag interval between their rate and the dynamics of the inflation rate (the largest correlation coefficient is for a month period). At the same time, the average share of indirect taxes on GDP, the economic pressure of which is usually transferred by the producer to the shoulders of consumers, is associated with a less close correlation with the level of inflation.
This situation indicates that the dynamics of the direct tax rate has a larger and faster effect on prices than the change in indirect taxes, and therefore the concept of tax and duty changes somewhat. However, the tightness of communication between them is not high enough. Thus, the increase in taxes, both direct and indirect, only partially initiates inflation, the cost of imported components and other goods necessary for the national production segment continues to play a significant role here.
Let us return to the important point of the proposal theory on the relationship between savings, investment and the slowdown in economic growth. Lack of savings here seems to be the main reason for curtailing investments. Check this position of the theory of supply is possible by analyzing the tightness of the relationship between the average direct tax rate and the level of profitability of products sold. As a rule, this dependence is extremely low. The situation is similar with the tight connection between the share of indirect taxes on GDP and the level of profitability for a specific period. Here, the negative value of the coefficients observed in inversely proportional dependencies is characteristic, i.e. the larger the indirect fees, the lower the level of profitability.
Such a situation is created when the classical concept of tax and collection is somewhat transformed and the burden of taxes is automatically transferred to the consumer by proportionally inflating prices as production costs become more expensive. This may be evidenced by an additional correlation analysis of the tightness of the relationship between the level of costs per ruble of output and the level of tax revenues per ruble of GDP.
In a word, the influence of taxes on the efficiency of national production deserves special attention. Normal should be recognized such a tax system, such a concept of tax and collection, in which there are no obstacles to the efficient allocation of resources.
Nevertheless, the analysis of the current state of tax practice confirms the following points:
a) the leading role of indirect taxes in generating cost inflation , therefore, suppressing production;
b) the negligible impact of the direct tax rate on production efficiency;
The low dependence between the most important macro-indicators - tax rates and return on capital, on which, in principle, all the well-known tax models of Western scientists are based - allows us to draw conclusions about the specifics of transition processes in the country and the inefficiency of any attempts to directly copy them in the domestic economy.