In modern society, economic management would not have been possible without such an important science as statistics. For many centuries, this discipline has played the role of a necessary and effective tool in any state. Moreover, the level and stage of the country's economic development did not matter.
The data collected by statistics, to this day, are widely used by government bodies, as they indicate the quantitative side of the mass phenomena that exist in society.
Definition of the term
The word "statistics" is ambiguous and multifaceted. To date, there are about a thousand different explanations of this term. Not only philosophers, but also economists, mathematicians, statesmen and sociologists tried to define such a science as statistics.
The very word denoting this discipline came from the Latin "status". Translated, it means "a certain state of affairs." However, today the term "statistics" can be used in a variety of meanings. It:
- practical activities carried out to collect, further process and analyze the data that characterize culture and the economy, population and education, as well as many other phenomena of public life;
- academic discipline included in the plans for the training of managers, businessmen and senior economists;
- A science that studies the quantitative aspects of various spheres of state life.
History of discipline and its development
The origin of statistics occurred in ancient times. Even then, people needed to calculate the population, property, land, livestock, etc.
The earliest information about such works dates back to the 5th century BC. e. They were held in China. Registration of free citizens by age and sex was carried out in ancient Rome. In the ancient world, all born babies were included in special lists. Separate accounting was conducted for young men of military obligation. Land lists were compiled, including data on buildings and slaves, inventory and income.
In 1061, the first general census was conducted in England. Two hundred forty thousand households were examined to collect data. There is information about the census in the 13th century. Mongol khans. They needed the data to collect taxes from the captured Russian territories.
In the following centuries, statistics continued to develop in the 17th century. found expression in the scientific discipline. Two schools became its basis. The first one is English, which uses political arithmetic. The second school is German, which was more concerned with the description of phenomena. At the beginning of the 19th century science acquired its third direction - statistical and mathematical, which was proposed by the Belgian researcher Adolf Ketle.
At the beginning of the 20th century this discipline began to use probability theory. Its methods allowed conducting sociological studies of consumer demand and product quality, as well as the standard of living of citizens.
Active statistical observations were carried out during the years of Soviet power. They made it possible to see the whole picture of the nascent national economy of the country. The work of statistics did not stop during the years of the war with fascist Germany. During this period, a need arose for the country to calculate material and labor resources. In addition, information on the transfer of productive forces to the eastern regions was of particular importance.
Active work of statistics was carried out in the post-war period, and it continues today. Without this science, further development of the national economy of the state and all its social spheres will become impossible.
Organization of a data acquisition system
The constituent links of statistics are:
- institutions of state and municipal statistics;
- unofficial and private statistics;
- departmental reporting.
The organization of statistical observation begins with departments and district departments. Their work is supervised by the statutory committees of the Federation. They, in turn, are subordinate to the State Statistics Committee of Russia.
Departmental reporting is compiled by enterprises and organizations of a certain field of activity. For example, statistics of banks, customs, etc.
Product Research
Federal statistical monitoring includes:
- indicators of macroeconomic level;
- industry data;
- statistics of living standards and social sphere;
- international and interregional comparisons.
Statistical observation data are published in the form of analytical notes and collections, express information and newsletters.
Statistical study stages
The collection and registration of evidence of a particular sphere of public life is carried out according to a certain scheme. There are various stages of statistical observation. Moreover, each of them has its own methods.
Where does statistical observation begin? Statistics begins to work only after this or that problem is clearly formulated. It is determined taking into account the purpose of the study and the concept of the information that must be studied.
The ongoing stages of statistical observation are impossible without a preliminary study of the technical specifications. This document is compiled by the customer for future research. The terms of reference shall indicate:
- studied objects;
- existing hypotheses and assumptions that require confirmation or refutation;
- progress of the study;
- timing of observations.
Based on the terms of reference, the structure of the future analytical report is developed , as well as a statistical monitoring program, which is a list of signs of objects that need to be registered, or questions that should be answered with reliable answers. An example of such a program is the questionnaire used for the census.
The next step is the collection of information. The method of its implementation is also dictated by the statistical observation program. Next, a compilation of the obtained data is compiled and grouped according to various criteria. Only after that all the information received are subject to analysis. This is the next stage of statistical observation, using indexes, average and relative values , etc. The report is being finalized and submitted to the customer.
It should be borne in mind that statistical observation, being a scientifically organized collection of data, largely determines the reliability of the conclusions made at the final stage. That is why obtaining factual information is the main task of statistics.
Data collection
The information required for research may be primary or secondary. The first type of data includes those that are not available at the time of issuing the technical specifications. Secondary information is already available. It was received earlier in other tasks.
An example of statistical observation during the collection of primary data is a questionnaire of patients in medical hospitals, a discussion of a specific problem at a meeting, receiving answers from store visitors, etc.
Obtaining secondary information is sometimes called a "library" or "cabinet". Moreover, both internal and external sources can be used to collect them. What is their difference?
An example of a statistical observation using internal secondary sources is the application:
- organization information system;
- data from previous studies;
- written reports of employees.
External secondary data is obtained from:
- reports of statistical authorities;
- electronic database;
- mass media;
- reports of professional associations, marketing agencies, etc.
Data Collection Methods
How is the primary registration of the information necessary for the study made? There are the following methods of statistical observation: direct and documentary, survey, as well as experiment.
The first of them is carried out during the registration of certain facts by the researcher himself. An example of direct observation is the study of passenger traffic intensity by specially installed counters.
The method of documented collection of information implies working with inventory cards, accounting journals, etc.
A statistical observation such as a survey involves obtaining information from the words of the selected respondent. At the same time, the polls are distinguished:
- questionnaires, when the respondent himself answers the questions in writing;
- correspondent, in which certain information is provided by voluntary correspondents;
- oral, when the counters study and record in the forms the oral answers of citizens.
Relatively recently, various interactive types of survey have appeared and are widely used . An example of this is the answers of respondents by telephone, on the Internet or by e-mail.
Data collection forms
Statistical observation methods must have a scientific basis. Improperly organized work will find research to fail. Errors of statistical observation will make the further stages of reporting simply impossible. This feature must be borne in mind. Indeed, for the correct answer to the questions posed, it is important to take into account the totality of the phenomena studied.
In Russia, there are two forms of federal statistical monitoring. The first of these is the reporting itself. As a rule, it is used by the statistics of the national economy. The second form is specially organized observation. It finds its application in the analysis of the studied processes and phenomena.
An example of statistical monitoring in the first form is the receipt of reports containing the necessary information from individual organizations, farms, institutions, etc. All transmitted information is based on data from business accounting or operational accounting of enterprises. Such information can be collected for a different period of time and can be in daily, ten-day, monthly, quarterly, semi-annual or annual reporting.
State statistical monitoring is carried out in the second form. This is due to a wide range of studies that examine various aspects of social life and natural phenomena. Such data cannot be obtained from enterprise reporting. A vivid example of a statistical observation of this form is the census. Practical statistics of Russia conducts it in relation to material resources, population, uninstalled equipment, perennial plantings, construction in progress, etc.
Toolkit Used
All work on statistical observation is based on special forms. This is the first research toolkit. The second is official instructions for filling out the necessary reports and forms.
Such a tool for statistical observation, as a form, is a questionnaire, questionnaire, etc. These forms contain questions that are dictated by the customer in the terms of reference. All the information collected is entered into the same forms. What does a similar form look like? In its upper part there are identification signs. On the left on each page are questions of statistical observation, and on the right is a place for answers to them.
Two types of observation forms are distinguished. The first one is card. It is intended to describe only one object of observation. The second form of the form is a list form. It records the observations of several objects at once.
But no matter how carefully the program and form were developed, federal statistical monitoring cannot be carried out without instructions. This document contains all the explanations of the terms of reference, as well as specific examples and guidance on related issues. The instruction is a separate brochure or is printed directly on the form.
Types of Statistical Observations
The right choice of methodology for collecting the necessary information is important for the successful solution of the task. There are several types of statistical observations that differ in time and coverage of population units.
So, information can be collected continuously, as the occurrence or occurrence of a phenomenon. Such statistical observations are current. They are carried out using those primary documents that contain the necessary information. An example of such a technique is the registry office. This body collects all information about changes regarding the population. Based on acts of civil status, studies on fertility and mortality, marriage, etc. can be carried out.
According to the time factor, periodic statistical observation is also distinguished. Spend it at regular intervals. An example of such an observation is a census, as well as determining the price level of goods in a retail chain.
Statistical studies may be carried out from time to time, without any periodicity. In this case, they are called one-time. An example of such observations can be a one-time account of theater groups organized by students.
Statistics can be differentiated by the coverage of population units. On this basis, continuous observation is distinguished. It initially focuses on the registration of the characteristics of a large number of certain units. This technique allows you to get fairly reliable information about the studied object. An example of continuous observation is a census.
Individual units of the population may also be subject to inspection. In this case, the statistical observation will be incomplete. In turn, it is divided into the following subspecies:
- a sample representing the selection of a part of the studied population (an example is a public opinion poll);
- the main array, when that part of the aggregate units whose contribution to the event under study is the largest is examined (an example is the study of urbanization in million-plus cities);
- a monographic survey, when only one unit of the population is observed in detail (for example, a family during a preliminary budget study).
What type of observation is preferable? Both continuous and non-continuous examinations have advantages and disadvantages. They should be taken into account when choosing a statistical technique.
So, a continuous observation:
- thanks to the coverage of all units of the population provides the most accurate data;
- takes a considerable period of time and requires more funding;
- not always able to cover all the elements of a given population;
- characterized by the duration of processing the results, which may affect the relevance of the findings.
As for the non-continuous observation, it:
- it is dangerous that the studied part does not accurately represent the entire population;
- It is able to miss certain essential signs, which will entail statistical observation errors.
Control of received information
Sometimes in the studied data there are some discrepancies between the real and calculated values of the studied quantities. These may be errors:
- Registration These are inaccuracies in the information about the observed object (in most cases they are canceled). For example, a typo when drafting documents at the registry office.
- Representativeness. These errors occur when, during a continuous examination, a part was taken that poorly represented the whole.
- Random. These are errors that occurred under the influence of fatigue, inattention and other factors. For example, an invalid account entry.
- Systematic. Such errors lead to underestimation or overstatement of the studied indicators. For example, rounding a value ending in 0 or 5.
To control errors in statistics, two methods are used. The first one is logical. It provides for the use of a chain of qualitative relationships. For example, a child of 8 years old cannot have his own children.
It is used in statistics and arithmetic control indicators. It uses a quantitative relationship between values. For example: column 4 = column 3 - column 1 + column 2.