Population growth in the country is possible both due to an increase in the birth rate and a decrease in mortality, as well as due to migration processes. We will not consider the last factor. There is a similarity and difference between population growth and its reproduction. The latter is that the population can continue to grow, and its reproduction is already beginning to decrease, and vice versa - the population can decrease, and its reproduction at the same time - to expand.
Currently, among the domestic specialists-demographers, the issue of the role of mortality and fertility in the reproduction of the population in the country is actively debated. Which of the two above is the dominant factor? What determines the replenishment and population growth to a greater extent? What problem should be addressed first of all - low fertility or relatively high mortality?
Studies of modern domestic demographic scientists show that the role of today's, albeit rather high, mortality in the change in population reproduction is relatively small. Of course, the role of the fight against high mortality rates in the country cannot be belittled. But their demographic significance is small. Today, the main factor that has the most significant impact on the demographic future of our country is fertility.
The problem of increasing the birth rate in the country is quite acute. One of the key indicators of the demographic situation is the general birth rate, which is determined by the ratio of the number of births per year to the number of population for the same period per one thousand people. What is this indicator for? The birth rate is necessary for a more accurate assessment of the demographic situation, for making demographic forecasts and more. There are several of these indicators. This is a whole group, not just one coefficient. This entire group of coefficients is analyzed in a complex.
The most accurate indicator of fertility is the fertility rate. It is characterized by the average number of births per woman on average over her life. The total fertility rate for simple reproduction cannot be lower than 2.17. If it is 4.1 or more, then it is high, and if less than 2.17, it is low.
The birth rate worldwide dropped from 4.95 births in 1950 to 2.56 in 2010. In some developed countries, this birth rate was already in the 60s. 20th century, and by the end of the century it decreased to 1.57. The maximum birth rate in Niger is 7.74, the minimum in Macau is 0.92.
According to the Federal State Statistics Service, in 2009 this ratio in the country was 1.53. The value in urban areas was 1.41, and in rural areas - 1.9. In 2011, in the whole country, it was equal to 1.61.
Birth rate by district: Central - 1.41; North-West - 1.41; South - 1.68; Volga - 1.50; Ural - 1.61; Siberian - 1.63; Far Eastern - 1.57.
Birth rates can be divided into special (female and male), general and private (cumulative, age, and others).
The most common is considered common:
N = n / (T * P) * 1000,
T - years (period); P is the population by the middle of the period (average annual population); n is the number of children born.
The coefficient depends on the intensity of the birth rate, it can give an error in the calculation.
Special rate:
F = n / (TW) * 1000.
The overall coefficient is associated with a special:
N = F * k,
to - the proportion of women 14-48 years old in the entire population. This parameter ranges from 21 to 31, so the analytical value of the special coefficient is close to the total. The level of the indicator depends on the age structure of women 14-48 years old. The birth rate at 14 years old approaches zero, from 21 to 32 years old reaches its maximum value and again tends to zero at 52 years old. A special coefficient is sometimes calculated for men - (FM):
FM = n / (t * M) * 1000
Often it turns out to be slightly more than special, since at the age of 14-51 men are slightly less than women. The age interval for them is sometimes taken 14-55 or 14-58 years. In such cases, the special ratio for men and women is not comparable.